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Ligue 1T-7dlineups pending

Le Mans vs Lorient

Saturday 19 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
LORIENT WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

32.1%
Le Mans
27.1%
Draw
40.8%
Lorient
Home xG
1.43
Away xG
1.53
Likely score
1–1
11.5%
Completeness
60.0%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Le Mans attacking output+14

    1.66 xG and 1.66 goals per match over the last 3.

  • Lorient defensive record-11

    1.32 xG and 1.32 goals conceded per match.

  • Le Mans home recordneutral

    2.0 scored / 2.0 conceded across 1 home matches.

  • Lorient away record+8

    19.7 scored / 22.7 conceded across 19 away matches.

  • Squad availability+3

    Le Mans: Djibril Sidibé (out), Nicolas Kocik (out) · Lorient: Mohamed Bamba (out), Arthur Avom (out), Bingourou Kamara (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Le Mans: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/8MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Lorient: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/7MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+1

    Le Mans: 8 in (3 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Milan Robin to Estoril, Habib Diallo from Metz, Raúl Torrente from Dinamo Zagreb · Lorient: 7 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jérémy Hatchi to Montpellier, Ibrahima Baldé from Rodez, Srdjan Kuzmic from Viborg FF

  • Le Mans last 3 played-17

    D L D — 1.65 scored / 1.99 conceded per match, 0.67 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Lorient last 12 played-4

    W L D L W — 1.15 scored / 1.07 conceded per match, 1.27 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 30% · form 27% · goal model 35% · results history 29% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output-3

    Goal-expectancy model: Le Mans 1.43 xG, Lorient 1.53 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricLe MansLorient
    Elo13881501
    Record0W 2D 1L12W 13D 12L
    Goals for / against4.980555691248156 / 5.98206464938481949.34342904461687 / 48.972316581227204
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    PossessionDATA UNAVAILABLE52%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split1 matches, 2–219 matches, 19.709116693521537–22.694515158947418

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    44Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 60.0%
      32.1% / 27.1% / 40.8%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Le Mans
    • Djibril Sidibé Defenderout
    • Nicolas Kocik Goalkeeperout
    Lorient
    • Mohamed Bamba Attackerout
    • Arthur Avom Midfielderout
    • Bingourou Kamara Goalkeeperout

    Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 5.0% away attack.