AC Milan vs Lecce
Sunday 20 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- AC Milan attacking output+0
1.34 xG and 1.34 goals per match over the last 19.
- Lecce defensive record-4
1.52 xG and 1.52 goals conceded per match.
- AC Milan home record+9
11.6 scored / 10.0 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Lecce away record+34
2.2 scored / 7.7 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
AC Milan: Matteo Gabbia (out), Warren Bondo (out) · Lecce: Willem Geubbels (out)
- Squad depth-1
AC Milan: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Lecce: 36 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/13DEF/10MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+43
AC Milan: 5 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Christopher Nkunku to RB Leipzig, Ismaël Bennacer to TBC, Sankhoun Diawara from Troyes · Lecce: 16 in (0 on loan), 22 out including 0 regulars — Christ-Owen Kouassi to Grenoble Foot 38, Joël Monteiro from Young Boys, Ali Dembélé from Torino
- AC Milan last 5 played+51
D W W W W — 1.67 scored / 0.64 conceded per match, 2.33 points per game (recency weighted).
- Lecce last 4 played+51
L L W D — 0.64 scored / 1.67 conceded per match, 0.96 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 75% · form 78% · goal model 66% · results history 79% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+42
Goal-expectancy model: AC Milan 1.86 xG, Lecce 0.60 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | AC Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1608 | 1292 |
| Record | 10W 5D 4L | 1W 5D 12L |
| Goals for / against | 25.392515197310246 / 15.247206136276331 | 7.833047147205692 / 27.29598335667352 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 53% | 40% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 11.573848220207545–9.978481200141562 | 8 matches, 2.158150519760496–7.655886963074661 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%67.3% / 21.8% / 10.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Matteo Gabbia Defenderout
- Warren Bondo Midfielderout
- Willem Geubbels Attackerout
Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 1.7% away attack.