AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Friday 11 Sep, 18:00 UTC · AFAS Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- AZ Alkmaar attacking output+31
1.58 xG and 1.58 goals per match over the last 24.
- Willem II defensive record+74
2.73 xG and 2.73 goals conceded per match.
- AZ Alkmaar home record+49
24.4 scored / 11.6 conceded across 13 home matches.
- Willem II away record+92
4.4 scored / 13.5 conceded across 5 away matches.
- Squad availability+10
AZ Alkmaar: Stije Resink (out), Kees Smit (out), Jordy Clasie (out), Hobie Verhulst (out), Denso Kasius (out), Elijah Dijkstra (out) · Willem II: Vito van Crooij (out), Thomas Didillon-Hödl (out), Thijs Muller (out), Jari Schuurman (out), Justin Hoogma (out), Amine Lachkar (out), Jaden Slory (out), Tonny Vilhena (out), Armin Culum (out), Anass Zarrouk (out)
- Squad depth+2
AZ Alkmaar: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/3MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Willem II: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/3MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+5
AZ Alkmaar: 13 in (1 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Sam de Grand to Lommel SK, Valdemar Byskov from FC Midtjylland, Isak Jensen to Lorient · Willem II: 13 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Chido Obi from Manchester United U23, Lasse Abildgaard to FC Eindhoven, Maxime Delanghe from Cercle Brugge
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Martin van den Kerkhofneutral
2.8 yellows and 0.20 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- AZ Alkmaar last 9 played+80
W W W W W — 2.37 scored / 0.76 conceded per match, 2.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Willem II last 12 played+100
L D L L D — 0.97 scored / 3.04 conceded per match, 0.26 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 72% · form 74% · goal model 79% · results history 86% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+67
Goal-expectancy model: AZ Alkmaar 2.75 xG, Willem II 0.73 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1487 | 1205 |
| Record | 7W 8D 9L | 0W 3D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 37.94624587994787 / 37.478446284497366 | 11.006663475627875 / 32.79592843822932 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 31% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 13 matches, 24.398568337642818–11.594345194578654 | 5 matches, 4.365819338157884–13.544642970100284 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%74.3% / 17.1% / 8.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 75.6%74.3% / 17.1% / 8.7%
- T-24hcompleteness 83.1%75.6% / 16.5% / 7.9%
- T-3hcompleteness 86.9%76.3% / 16.1% / 7.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Stije Resink Midfielderout
- Kees Smit Midfielderout
- Jordy Clasie Midfielderout
- Hobie Verhulst Goalkeeperout
- Denso Kasius Defenderout
- Elijah Dijkstra Defenderout
- Vito van Crooij Midfielderout
- Thomas Didillon-Hödl Goalkeeperout
- Thijs Muller Midfielderout
- Jari Schuurman Midfielderout
- Justin Hoogma Defenderout
- Amine Lachkar Midfielderout
- Jaden Slory Attackerout
- Tonny Vilhena Midfielderout
- Armin Culum Attackerout
- Anass Zarrouk Midfielderout
Availability impact: 9.0% home attack, 15.0% away attack.