Oxford United vs Cambridge United
Saturday 19 Sep, 14:00 UTC · The Kassam Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Oxford United attacking output+1
1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 9.
- Cambridge United defensive record-5
1.31 xG and 1.31 goals conceded per match.
- Oxford United home record-52
4.1 scored / 8.3 conceded across 4 home matches.
- Cambridge United away record-15
13.4 scored / 10.5 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+0
Oxford United: Frankie Kent (out) · Cambridge United: Shayne Lavery (out)
- Squad depth-0
Oxford United: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Cambridge United: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-5
Oxford United: 8 in (1 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Owen Dale to Northampton Town, Brian De Keersmaecker to Bristol City, Stanley Mills to Preston North End · Cambridge United: 9 in (1 on loan), 11 out including 0 regulars — Sam Curtis from Sheffield United, Mamadou Jobe to Stockport County, Owen Moxon from Stockport County
- Oxford United last 9 played+3
W L W D L — 1.65 scored / 1.58 conceded per match, 1.33 points per game (recency weighted).
- Cambridge United last 12 played-8
D W L L D — 1.56 scored / 1.40 conceded per match, 1.50 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 35% · form 33% · goal model 35% · results history 38% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-4
Goal-expectancy model: Oxford United 1.50 xG, Cambridge United 1.61 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Oxford United | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1475 | 1528 |
| Record | 3W 2D 4L | 9W 6D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 13.24180104483836 / 14.802272417185328 | 32.89436406914239 / 28.76459939837348 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 56% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 4 matches, 4.079731118566873–8.277796108685717 | 10 matches, 13.445760077607261–10.467540228852398 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.0%35.3% / 27.4% / 37.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Frankie Kent Defenderout
- Shayne Lavery Attackerout
Availability impact: 1.4% home attack, 1.7% away attack.