OFI vs TSG Hoffenheim
Thursday 17 Sep, 16:45 UTC · Pankritio Stadio
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- OFI attacking output+56
2.49 xG and 2.49 goals per match over the last 2.
- TSG Hoffenheim defensive record+32
1.72 xG and 1.72 goals conceded per match.
- OFI home record+100
3.0 scored / 0.0 conceded across 1 home matches.
- TSG Hoffenheim away record+47
8.0 scored / 14.6 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability+10
OFI: Fotis Koutsoupias (out), Christos Sielis (out), Nikolaos Marinakis (out), Aaron Leya Iseka (out) · TSG Hoffenheim: Luis Engelns (out), Fisnik Asllani (out), Alexander Prass (out), Ozan Kabak (out), Andrej Kramaric (out), Bernardo (out), Tim Lemperle (out), Koki Machida (out)
- Squad depth+1
OFI: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/10DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · TSG Hoffenheim: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+21
OFI: 9 in (5 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Kenan Kodro from Ferencvárosi, Lorenzo Dickmann from Bari 1908, Konstantinos Chnaris to Panachaiki · TSG Hoffenheim: 16 in (1 on loan), 28 out including 0 regulars — Arthur Chaves to Botafogo, Alessandro Vogt to FC Heidenheim, Dennis Geiger to NEC Nijmegen
- OFI last 2 played+100
W W — 2.49 scored / 0.00 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- TSG Hoffenheim last 4 played+16
L L W W — 2.16 scored / 2.49 conceded per match, 0.77 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 81% · form 82% · goal model 64% · results history 84% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+39
Goal-expectancy model: OFI 1.88 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 0.70 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | OFI | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1923 | 1478 |
| Record | 2W 0D 0L | 6W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 4.989891947893656 / 0 | 23.46797435349547 / 27.45251177890135 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 45% | 58% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 1 matches, 2.9999999999999996–0 | 7 matches, 8.03245280886487–14.644976948258549 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 64.4%67.5% / 22.1% / 10.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Fotis Koutsoupias Defenderout
- Christos Sielis Defenderout
- Nikolaos Marinakis Defenderout
- Aaron Leya Iseka Attackerout
- Luis Engelns Midfielderout
- Fisnik Asllani Attackerout
- Alexander Prass Midfielderout
- Ozan Kabak Defenderout
- Andrej Kramaric Attackerout
- Bernardo Defenderout
- Tim Lemperle Attackerout
- Koki Machida Defenderout
Availability impact: 5.9% home attack, 12.0% away attack.