Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Sunday 20 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Elland Road
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Leeds United attacking output+18
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals per match over the last 16.
- Crystal Palace defensive record+21
1.43 xG and 1.43 goals conceded per match.
- Leeds United home record+51
12.0 scored / 4.9 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Crystal Palace away record+40
19.7 scored / 32.3 conceded across 16 away matches.
- Squad availability+9
Leeds United: Joe Rodon (out), Mateo Joseph (out) · Crystal Palace: Óscar Mingueza (out), Chadi Riad (out), Ismaïla Sarr (out), Jean-Philippe Mateta (out), Honest Ahanor (out), Ben Chilwell (out)
- Squad depth-1
Leeds United: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Crystal Palace: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/8MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+9
Leeds United: 9 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Melvin Bard from Nice, Largie Ramazani to Burnley, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya from Eintracht Frankfurt · Crystal Palace: 13 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jesurun Rak-Sakyi to Kasımpaşa, Matheus França to Alverca, Quinten Timber from Olympique Marseille
- Leeds United last 5 played-29
L D D W D — 1.80 scored / 2.38 conceded per match, 0.91 points per game (recency weighted).
- Crystal Palace last 4 played-14
W W L L — 2.25 scored / 1.96 conceded per match, 1.88 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 55% · form 55% · goal model 57% · results history 21% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+30
Goal-expectancy model: Leeds United 2.07 xG, Crystal Palace 1.17 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Leeds United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1576 | 1472 |
| Record | 6W 7D 3L | 9W 8D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 27.364498529143724 / 18.40226949000082 | 34.272088857846995 / 38.55941024971289 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 45% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 12.001284326489943–4.915707091070859 | 16 matches, 19.668424710875975–32.33332213005503 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%46.9% / 23.7% / 29.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Joe Rodon Defenderout
- Mateo Joseph Attackerout
- Óscar Mingueza Defenderout
- Chadi Riad Defenderout
- Ismaïla Sarr Attackerout
- Jean-Philippe Mateta Attackerout
- Honest Ahanor Defenderout
- Ben Chilwell Defenderout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 8.8% away attack.