VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

• VfB Stuttgart attacking output+27

  1.75 xG and 1.75 goals per match over the last 21.

• Borussia Dortmund defensive record+3

  1.19 xG and 1.19 goals conceded per match.

• VfB Stuttgart home record+28

  16.1 scored / 9.9 conceded across 11 home matches.

• Borussia Dortmund away record-4

  15.6 scored / 14.8 conceded across 9 away matches.

• Squad availability-13

  VfB Stuttgart: Leonidas Stergiou (out), Jeremy Arévalo  (out), Josha Vagnoman (out), Stefan Drljaca (out), Justin Diehl  (out), Tiago Tomás (out), Lorenz Assignon  (out), Dan-Axel Zagadou  (out), Leo Sauer  (out), Ramon Hendriks (out), Jeff Chabot (out), Nikolas Nartey  (out), Grischa Prömel (out), Dennis Seimen  (out), Luca Jaquez  (out), Chris Führich  (out) · Borussia Dortmund: Enzo dos Santos (out), Filippo Mane (out), Ramy Bensebaini (out), Mussa Kaba (out), Nico Schlotterbeck  (out), Samuele Inácio (out), Konstantinos Karetsas (out), Justin Lerma (out), Giannis Konstantelias (out), Emre Can   (out)

• Squad depth+0

  VfB Stuttgart: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/3DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Borussia Dortmund: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/6MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

• Recent transfer activity+14

  VfB Stuttgart: 6 in (1 on loan), 11 out including 0 regulars — Jeremy Arévalo  to Estrela Amadora, Badredine Bouanani to Rangers, Mirza Catovic to Barcelona II · Borussia Dortmund: 12 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Ethan Nwaneri from Arsenal, Joey Veerman from PSV, Giannis Konstantelias from PAOK

• VfB Stuttgart last 7 played+39

  W W L W L — 2.63 scored / 1.84 conceded per match, 1.95 points per game (recency weighted).

• Borussia Dortmund last 5 played-61

  W W W W D — 2.63 scored / 1.41 conceded per match, 2.90 points per game (recency weighted).

• Model agreementneutral

  Elo 29% · form 27% · goal model 31% · results history 23% for the home win.

• Expected attacking output-12

  Goal-expectancy model: VfB Stuttgart 1.50 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.86 xG.

• Borussia Dortmund over 0.5

  Team goals · very high confidence in this outcome

  42 observed matches · raw corner/card counts · 76% input coverage · XI pending

  Why this pick →
  82.8%
• Borussia Dortmund to score

  Team goals · very high confidence in this outcome

  42 observed matches · raw corner/card counts · 76% input coverage · XI pending

  Why this pick →
  82.8%
• Borussia Dortmund +1

  Asian handicap · very high confidence in this outcome

  42 observed matches · raw corner/card counts · 76% input coverage · XI pending

  Why this pick →
  81.7%

• VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund (12)76.0%

  Double chance — any winner, no draw.

  Why this number →
• Draw or Borussia Dortmund (X2)69.4%

  Double chance — away not beaten.

  Why this number →
• VfB Stuttgart or draw (1X)54.6%

  Double chance — home not beaten.

  Why this number →
• Borussia Dortmund win45.4%

  Away side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• VfB Stuttgart win30.6%

  Home side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• Draw24.0%

  Level after 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• Borussia Dortmund win to nil18.6%

  Away wins without conceding.

  Why this number →
• VfB Stuttgart win to nil11.9%

  Home wins without conceding.

  Why this number →

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

• T-7dcompleteness 76.3%
  29.1% / 25.2% / 45.7%

Availability impact: 22.5% home attack, 14.7% away attack.