Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Saturday 19 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Koning Willem II Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Willem II attacking output-22
0.92 xG and 0.92 goals per match over the last 12.
- Fortuna Sittard defensive record+25
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals conceded per match.
- Willem II home record-90
6.6 scored / 19.2 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Fortuna Sittard away record+48
5.5 scored / 10.3 conceded across 5 away matches.
- Squad availability-1
Willem II: Vito van Crooij (out), Thomas Didillon-Hödl (out), Thijs Muller (out), Jari Schuurman (out), Justin Hoogma (out), Amine Lachkar (out), Jaden Slory (out), Tonny Vilhena (out), Armin Culum (out), Anass Zarrouk (out) · Fortuna Sittard: Kristoffer Peterson (out), Siebe Wylin (out), Sven Simons (out), Ole Romeny (out), Edouard Michut (out), Iván Márquez (out), Lequincio Zeefuik (out)
- Squad depth-1
Willem II: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/3MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Fortuna Sittard: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/6MID/1FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+2
Willem II: 12 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Chido Obi from Manchester United U23, Lasse Abildgaard to FC Eindhoven, Maxime Delanghe from Cercle Brugge · Fortuna Sittard: 11 in (2 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Rodrigo Guth from Talleres Córdoba, Shawn Adewoye to Lommel SK, Hasip Korkmazyürek to Isparta Davrazspor
- Willem II last 12 played-100
L D L L D — 0.97 scored / 3.04 conceded per match, 0.26 points per game (recency weighted).
- Fortuna Sittard last 5 played-42
W W L W W — 2.66 scored / 1.82 conceded per match, 2.57 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head-57
1 previous meetings: Willem II 0W 0D 1L, 0-1 on aggregate (-1.00 goal difference per meeting), 1.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 23% · form 22% · goal model 22% · results history 3% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-26
Goal-expectancy model: Willem II 1.21 xG, Fortuna Sittard 2.00 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1205 | 1405 |
| Record | 0W 3D 9L | 3W 3D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 11.006663475627875 / 32.79592843822932 | 16.77128647855467 / 23.925748807171985 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 31% | 44% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 6.570412643619806–19.21281432431612 | 5 matches, 5.482314901633276–10.302236593611696 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%20.2% / 22.7% / 57.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Vito van Crooij Midfielderout
- Thomas Didillon-Hödl Goalkeeperout
- Thijs Muller Midfielderout
- Jari Schuurman Midfielderout
- Justin Hoogma Defenderout
- Amine Lachkar Midfielderout
- Jaden Slory Attackerout
- Tonny Vilhena Midfielderout
- Armin Culum Attackerout
- Anass Zarrouk Midfielderout
- Kristoffer Peterson Attackerout
- Siebe Wylin Defenderout
- Sven Simons Midfielderout
- Ole Romeny Attackerout
- Edouard Michut Midfielderout
- Iván Márquez Defenderout
- Lequincio Zeefuik Attackerout
Availability impact: 15.0% home attack, 14.3% away attack.