LOSC Lille vs Troyes
Sunday 13 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- LOSC Lille attacking output+2
1.26 xG and 1.26 goals per match over the last 19.
- Troyes defensive record+50
2.38 xG and 2.38 goals conceded per match.
- LOSC Lille home record+24
9.4 scored / 5.5 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Troyes away record-50
2.0 scored / 1.0 conceded across 1 away matches.
- Squad availability-1
LOSC Lille: Dilane Bakwa (out), Hamza Igamane (out), Nabil Bentaleb (out) · Troyes: Paolo Gozzi (out), Ismaël Boura (out), Yvann Titi (out)
- Squad depth-2
LOSC Lille: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/4MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Troyes: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/5DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+3
LOSC Lille: 6 in (0 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Maurits Kjærgaard from Salzburg, Orlando Gill from San Lorenzo, Ousmane Touré to Dunkerque · Troyes: 8 in (1 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Elijah Odede to Lommel SK, Mounaïm El Idrissy to Raja Casablanca, Timothé Nkada from Standard Liège
- Match conditionsneutral
moderate rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Romain Lissorgueneutral
4.2 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- LOSC Lille last 7 played+35
L W W D W — 1.87 scored / 1.17 conceded per match, 1.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Troyes last 3 played+53
L W D — 1.36 scored / 2.42 conceded per match, 1.32 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 61% · form 61% · goal model 55% · results history 68% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+27
Goal-expectancy model: LOSC Lille 2.07 xG, Troyes 1.25 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | LOSC Lille | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1557 | 1404 |
| Record | 10W 2D 7L | 1W 1D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 23.857041057042835 / 19.268720594175313 | 4.0417588335132715 / 7.129692956185992 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 9.388422503203122–5.546241374674747 | 1 matches, 2–1 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%55.5% / 23.2% / 21.3%
- T-3dcompleteness 68.1%55.5% / 23.2% / 21.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Dilane Bakwa Attackerout
- Hamza Igamane Attackerout
- Nabil Bentaleb Midfielderout
- Paolo Gozzi Defenderout
- Ismaël Boura Defenderout
- Yvann Titi Defenderout
Availability impact: 4.9% home attack, 4.2% away attack.