Barnsley vs Leicester City
Saturday 19 Sep, 11:30 UTC · Oakwell Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Barnsley attacking output-22
1.05 xG and 1.05 goals per match over the last 29.
- Leicester City defensive record+4
1.46 xG and 1.46 goals conceded per match.
- Barnsley home record-50
13.7 scored / 27.7 conceded across 14 home matches.
- Leicester City away record+29
10.2 scored / 16.6 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Leicester City: John Lundstram (out), Ben Nelson (out), Jakub Stolarczyk (out)
- Squad depth+2
Barnsley: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Leicester City: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/10DEF/8MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-9
Barnsley: 17 in (2 on loan), 23 out including 0 regulars — Corey O'Keeffe to Bradford City, Kelechi Nwakali to Omonia 29is Maiou, Ben Hamed Touré from Annecy · Leicester City: 16 in (3 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Warren O'Hora from Hibernian, Stephy Alvaro Mavididi to Watford, Emil Riis from Bristol City
- Barnsley last 4 played-100
L L D D — 0.62 scored / 3.01 conceded per match, 0.07 points per game (recency weighted).
- Leicester City last 12 played+26
L W D L L — 0.91 scored / 1.43 conceded per match, 1.14 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 36% · form 36% · goal model 37% · results history 14% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+1
Goal-expectancy model: Barnsley 1.38 xG, Leicester City 1.36 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Barnsley | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1379 | 1427 |
| Record | 5W 10D 14L | 5W 5D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 30.513664516497396 / 50.779158900041125 | 18.324065150753004 / 27.81144746845561 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 50% | 65% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 14 matches, 13.690522686052654–27.697609556604032 | 11 matches, 10.210765627092075–16.57490493130741 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%32.2% / 27.0% / 40.7%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
- John Lundstram Midfielderout
- Ben Nelson Defenderout
- Jakub Stolarczyk Goalkeeperout
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 4.7% away attack.