Chelsea vs Hull City
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Chelsea attacking output+40
1.56 xG and 1.56 goals per match over the last 27.
- Hull City defensive record-30
0.82 xG and 0.82 goals conceded per match.
- Chelsea home record+23
26.3 scored / 18.9 conceded across 16 home matches.
- Hull City away record+0
3.6 scored / 3.6 conceded across 4 away matches.
- Squad availability-6
Chelsea: Aarón Anselmino (out), Moisés Caicedo (out), Caleb Wiley (out), Wesley Fofana (out), Emmanuel Emegha (out), Marco Palestra (out), Valentín Barco (out) · Hull City: Joe Gelhardt (out), Darko Gyabi (out), Eliot Matazo (out), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (out)
- Squad depth-0
Chelsea: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Hull City: 35 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+33
Chelsea: 5 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Marc Guiu to RB Leipzig, David Datro Fofana to Servette, Caleb Wiley to Preston North End · Hull City: 18 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Sorba Thomas from Stoke City, Liam Millar to Birmingham City, Christos Mouzakitis from Olympiacos F.C.
- Match conditionsneutral
few clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Farai Hallamneutral
3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- Chelsea last 7 played+60
W L W W W — 3.45 scored / 2.25 conceded per match, 2.30 points per game (recency weighted).
- Hull City last 8 played-5
L D W D W — 0.74 scored / 0.64 conceded per match, 1.44 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+100
1 previous meetings: Chelsea 1W 0D 0L, 4-0 on aggregate (+4.00 goal difference per meeting), 4.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 45% · form 47% · goal model 52% · results history 69% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+22
Goal-expectancy model: Chelsea 1.80 xG, Hull City 1.15 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Chelsea | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1520 | 1497 |
| Record | 11W 4D 12L | 2W 4D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 42.15156261010235 / 37.84957175564812 | 6.149212107181963 / 6.567751380198075 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 59% | 43% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 16 matches, 26.302278944091114–18.913454818070143 | 4 matches, 3.5631856804555944–3.598866047038337 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%52.1% / 24.3% / 23.6%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.1%51.7% / 24.4% / 23.9%
- T-24hcompleteness 83.1%51.7% / 24.4% / 23.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Aarón Anselmino Defenderout
- Moisés Caicedo Midfielderout
- Caleb Wiley Defenderout
- Wesley Fofana Defenderout
- Emmanuel Emegha Attackerout
- Marco Palestra Defenderout
- Valentín Barco Midfielderout
- Joe Gelhardt Attackerout
- Darko Gyabi Midfielderout
- Eliot Matazo Midfielderout
- Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielderout
Availability impact: 10.1% home attack, 6.3% away attack.