Lazio vs AC Milan
Saturday 12 Sep, 16:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Lazio attacking output-5
1.30 xG and 1.30 goals per match over the last 20.
- AC Milan defensive record-37
0.80 xG and 0.80 goals conceded per match.
- Lazio home record-26
13.9 scored / 19.6 conceded across 11 home matches.
- AC Milan away record-45
13.9 scored / 4.9 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-29
Lazio: Gabriele Artistico (out), Josip Sutalo (out), Mattia Zaccagni (out), Gustav Isaksen (out), Filipe Bordon (out), Adam Marusic (out), Fisayo Dele-Bashiru (out), Nicolò Rovella (out), Alfonso Pedraza (out), Danilo Cataldi (out), Alessio Furlanetto (out), Patric (out), Alessio Romagnoli (out), Samuel Gigot (out), Luca Pellegrini (out) · AC Milan: Matteo Gabbia (out), Warren Bondo (out)
- Squad depth-1
Lazio: 36 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · AC Milan: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-33
Lazio: 15 in (2 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Alessio Romagnoli to Al Sadd, Samuel Gigot to TBC, Boulaye Dia to Rennes · AC Milan: 5 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Christopher Nkunku to RB Leipzig, Ismaël Bennacer to TBC, Sankhoun Diawara from Troyes
- Match conditionsneutral
overcast clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Matteo Marcenaroneutral
4.8 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Lazio last 3 played+50
W W W — 1.35 scored / 0.35 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- AC Milan last 5 played-51
D W W W W — 1.67 scored / 0.64 conceded per match, 2.33 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 32% · form 31% · goal model 25% · results history 58% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-16
Goal-expectancy model: Lazio 1.08 xG, AC Milan 1.56 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1519 | 1608 |
| Record | 7W 8D 5L | 10W 5D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 26.015934193102044 / 22.943234879835906 | 25.392515197310246 / 15.247206136276331 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 51% | 53% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 13.88639377373939–19.550208818576305 | 10 matches, 13.872873086751653–4.939787459706965 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%36.1% / 27.2% / 36.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%33.9% / 26.9% / 39.2%
- T-24hcompleteness 80.0%33.9% / 26.9% / 39.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Gabriele Artistico Attackerout
- Josip Sutalo Defenderout
- Mattia Zaccagni Attackerout
- Gustav Isaksen Attackerout
- Filipe Bordon Defenderout
- Adam Marusic Defenderout
- Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielderout
- Nicolò Rovella Midfielderout
- Alfonso Pedraza Defenderout
- Danilo Cataldi Midfielderout
- Alessio Furlanetto Goalkeeperout
- Patric Defenderout
- Alessio Romagnoli Defenderout
- Samuel Gigot Defenderout
- Luca Pellegrini Defenderout
- Matteo Gabbia Defenderout
- Warren Bondo Midfielderout
Availability impact: 20.8% home attack, 3.0% away attack.