Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Tuesday 15 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Anfield
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Liverpool attacking output+19
1.48 xG and 1.48 goals per match over the last 25.
- Tottenham Hotspur defensive record-3
1.42 xG and 1.42 goals conceded per match.
- Liverpool home record+51
22.6 scored / 10.4 conceded across 12 home matches.
- Tottenham Hotspur away record+10
13.2 scored / 15.7 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability+0
Liverpool: Hugo Ekitiké (out), Wataru Endo (out), Joe Gomez (out), Federico Chiesa (out) · Tottenham Hotspur: Mykhaylo Mudryk (out), Wilson Odobert (out), Xavi Simons (out), James Maddison (out)
- Squad depth+2
Liverpool: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 5GK/9DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Tottenham Hotspur: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/6MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+29
Liverpool: 4 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Lucca Brughmans from Genk, Harvey Elliott to Valencia, Stefan Bajcetic to Celta Fortuna · Tottenham Hotspur: 15 in (3 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Pape Matar Sarr to Juventus, Tosin Adarabioyo from Chelsea, Kota Takai to Sint-Truiden
- Referee — Andy Madleyneutral
3.7 yellows and 0.42 reds per match across 12 tracked appointments.
- Liverpool last 5 played+39
W W D D W — 1.99 scored / 1.21 conceded per match, 2.05 points per game (recency weighted).
- Tottenham Hotspur last 2 played+49
D L — 0.00 scored / 0.98 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 54% · form 56% · goal model 56% · results history 79% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+28
Goal-expectancy model: Liverpool 1.85 xG, Tottenham Hotspur 1.00 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1555 | 1459 |
| Record | 12W 4D 8L | 7W 7D 10L |
| Goals for / against | 36.940118359861714 / 31.318160719287583 | 29.31933993884004 / 34.09080549914473 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 58% | 48% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 12 matches, 22.61015605491665–10.432667881384255 | 12 matches, 13.178855406083375–15.688769788704688 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%57.2% / 23.6% / 19.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Hugo Ekitiké Attackerout
- Wataru Endo Midfielderout
- Joe Gomez Defenderout
- Federico Chiesa Attackerout
- Mykhaylo Mudryk Attackerout
- Wilson Odobert Attackerout
- Xavi Simons Midfielderout
- James Maddison Midfielderout
Availability impact: 6.3% home attack, 6.5% away attack.