Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna
Wednesday 16 Sep, 17:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Atlético de Madrid attacking output+36
1.95 xG and 1.95 goals per match over the last 21.
- Osasuna defensive record+0
1.13 xG and 1.13 goals conceded per match.
- Atlético de Madrid home record+50
22.8 scored / 13.9 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Osasuna away record+39
6.7 scored / 13.8 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Atlético de Madrid: Alexander Sørloth (out)
- Squad depth-1
Atlético de Madrid: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Osasuna: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-5
Atlético de Madrid: 5 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Carlos Martín to Hajduk Split, Thomas Lemar to Elche, José María Giménez to Deportivo A Coruña · Osasuna: 4 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Romain Del Castillo from Brest, Iker Benito to Querétaro, Diego Rico from Getafe
- Atlético de Madrid last 6 played+1
L L W D W — 1.62 scored / 1.61 conceded per match, 1.41 points per game (recency weighted).
- Osasuna last 4 played+14
L W W D — 1.26 scored / 1.55 conceded per match, 1.73 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 45% · form 43% · goal model 55% · results history 38% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+27
Goal-expectancy model: Atlético de Madrid 2.02 xG, Osasuna 1.22 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Atlético de Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1563 | 1541 |
| Record | 9W 4D 8L | 8W 6D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 41.00024190270004 / 30.45991300073717 | 24.598245737499344 / 21.3864451674263 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 22.78560573050362–13.856717269513949 | 9 matches, 6.7153384502429505–13.768746816716025 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%46.2% / 26.1% / 27.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Alexander Sørloth Attackerout
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 0.0% away attack.