Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim
Sunday 20 Sep, 17:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Paderborn attacking output-69
0.00 xG and 0.00 goals per match over the last 2.
- TSG Hoffenheim defensive record+32
1.72 xG and 1.72 goals conceded per match.
- Paderborn home record-50
0.0 scored / 1.0 conceded across 1 home matches.
- TSG Hoffenheim away record+47
8.0 scored / 14.6 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability+4
Paderborn: Timur Gayret (out), Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant (out), Lasse Eickel (out), Felix Götze (out), Sven Michel (out), Sebastian Klaas (out) · TSG Hoffenheim: Luis Engelns (out), Fisnik Asllani (out), Alexander Prass (out), Ozan Kabak (out), Andrej Kramaric (out), Bernardo (out), Tim Lemperle (out), Koki Machida (out)
- Squad depth+2
Paderborn: 35 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/10MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · TSG Hoffenheim: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+21
Paderborn: 12 in (5 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Kennedy Okpala to Dynamo Dresden, Nick Bätzner to Rot-Weiss Essen, Marvin Pieringer from FC Heidenheim · TSG Hoffenheim: 16 in (1 on loan), 27 out including 0 regulars — Arthur Chaves to Botafogo, Alessandro Vogt to FC Heidenheim, Dennis Geiger to NEC Nijmegen
- Paderborn last 2 played-26
L D — 0.00 scored / 0.51 conceded per match, 0.49 points per game (recency weighted).
- TSG Hoffenheim last 4 played+16
L L W W — 2.16 scored / 2.49 conceded per match, 0.77 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 29% · form 24% · goal model 37% · results history 35% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+4
Goal-expectancy model: Paderborn 1.25 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 1.14 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Paderborn | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1352 | 1478 |
| Record | 0W 1D 1L | 6W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 0 / 1.010108052106343 | 23.46797435349547 / 27.45251177890135 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | DATA UNAVAILABLE | 58% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 1 matches, 0–1 | 7 matches, 8.03245280886487–14.644976948258549 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 56.9%33.8% / 29.3% / 36.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Timur Gayret Midfielderout
- Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant Defenderout
- Lasse Eickel Attackerout
- Felix Götze Defenderout
- Sven Michel Attackerout
- Sebastian Klaas Midfielderout
- Luis Engelns Midfielderout
- Fisnik Asllani Attackerout
- Alexander Prass Midfielderout
- Ozan Kabak Defenderout
- Andrej Kramaric Attackerout
- Bernardo Defenderout
- Tim Lemperle Attackerout
- Koki Machida Defenderout
Availability impact: 9.4% home attack, 12.0% away attack.