Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn
Saturday 12 Sep, 13:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Borussia Dortmund attacking output+51
2.16 xG and 2.16 goals per match over the last 21.
- Paderborn defensive record-44
0.51 xG and 0.51 goals conceded per match.
- Borussia Dortmund home record+79
29.5 scored / 10.5 conceded across 12 home matches.
- Paderborn away recordneutral
0.0 scored / 0.0 conceded across 1 away matches.
- Squad availability-8
Borussia Dortmund: Enzo dos Santos (out), Filippo Mane (out), Ramy Bensebaini (out), Mussa Kaba (out), Nico Schlotterbeck (out), Samuele Inácio (out), Konstantinos Karetsas (out), Justin Lerma (out), Giannis Konstantelias (out), Emre Can (out) · Paderborn: Timur Gayret (out), Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant (out), Lasse Eickel (out), Felix Götze (out), Sven Michel (out), Sebastian Klaas (out)
- Squad depth-2
Borussia Dortmund: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/6MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Paderborn: 35 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/10MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+1
Borussia Dortmund: 12 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Ethan Nwaneri from Arsenal, Joey Veerman from PSV, Giannis Konstantelias from PAOK · Paderborn: 12 in (5 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Kennedy Okpala to Dynamo Dresden, Nick Bätzner to Rot-Weiss Essen, Marvin Pieringer from FC Heidenheim
- Match conditionsneutral
overcast clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Harm Osmersneutral
5.2 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- Borussia Dortmund last 5 played+61
W W W W D — 2.63 scored / 1.41 conceded per match, 2.90 points per game (recency weighted).
- Paderborn last 2 played+26
L D — 0.00 scored / 0.51 conceded per match, 0.49 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 75% · form 78% · goal model 57% · results history 84% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+31
Goal-expectancy model: Borussia Dortmund 2.02 xG, Paderborn 1.09 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1672 | 1352 |
| Record | 13W 3D 5L | 0W 1D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 45.35891529762108 / 24.92691031407927 | 0 / 1.010108052106343 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 51% | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 12 matches, 29.456299675487934–10.479983689182143 | 1 matches, 0–0 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 60.6%64.4% / 21.4% / 14.1%
- T-3dcompleteness 68.1%63.5% / 21.7% / 14.8%
- T-24hcompleteness 68.1%63.5% / 21.7% / 14.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Enzo dos Santos Midfielderout
- Filippo Mane Defenderout
- Ramy Bensebaini Defenderout
- Mussa Kaba Midfielderout
- Nico Schlotterbeck Defenderout
- Samuele Inácio Attackerout
- Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielderout
- Justin Lerma Midfielderout
- Giannis Konstantelias Midfielderout
- Emre Can Defenderout
- Timur Gayret Midfielderout
- Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant Defenderout
- Lasse Eickel Attackerout
- Felix Götze Defenderout
- Sven Michel Attackerout
- Sebastian Klaas Midfielderout
Availability impact: 14.7% home attack, 9.4% away attack.