FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Friday 18 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Euroborg
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- FC Groningen attacking output+9
1.36 xG and 1.36 goals per match over the last 15.
- PEC Zwolle defensive record+67
2.55 xG and 2.55 goals conceded per match.
- FC Groningen home record+42
8.8 scored / 3.0 conceded across 7 home matches.
- PEC Zwolle away record+100
7.3 scored / 26.5 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
FC Groningen: Ryan Metu (out), Marco Rente (out), Rijk Janse (out), Malcolm Jeng (out), Tyrique Mercera (out) · PEC Zwolle: Younes Namli (out), Filip Krastev (out), Jan Bürger (out)
- Squad depthneutral
FC Groningen: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · PEC Zwolle: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
FC Groningen: 7 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Pelle Boevink from SpVgg Greuther Fürth, Noam Emeran to TBC, Sven Bouland to MVV Maastricht · PEC Zwolle: 8 in (1 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Filip Krastev from Lommel SK, Sydney van Hooijdonk from Estrela Amadora, Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg
- FC Groningen last 4 played+77
D W W W — 2.73 scored / 1.19 conceded per match, 2.18 points per game (recency weighted).
- PEC Zwolle last 4 played-39
D W W W — 2.39 scored / 1.61 conceded per match, 1.63 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 69% · form 71% · goal model 69% · results history 61% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+49
Goal-expectancy model: FC Groningen 2.38 xG, PEC Zwolle 0.91 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1567 | 1331 |
| Record | 7W 4D 4L | 3W 5D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 20.47440024921404 / 14.14831371689455 | 18.443880179692254 / 38.268288876719126 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 45% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 8.830863321576391–3.0169892681554393 | 8 matches, 7.342400965062281–26.541832960256418 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%62.7% / 21.4% / 15.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Ryan Metu Attackerout
- Marco Rente Defenderout
- Rijk Janse Goalkeeperout
- Malcolm Jeng Defenderout
- Tyrique Mercera Defenderout
- Younes Namli Attackerout
- Filip Krastev Midfielderout
- Jan Bürger Defenderout
Availability impact: 7.5% home attack, 4.7% away attack.