Stockport County vs Leicester City
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Edgeley Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Stockport County attacking output+33
1.78 xG and 1.78 goals per match over the last 28.
- Leicester City defensive record+4
1.46 xG and 1.46 goals conceded per match.
- Stockport County home record+55
32.2 scored / 14.6 conceded across 16 home matches.
- Leicester City away record+29
10.2 scored / 16.6 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
Stockport County: Ryan Rydel (out), Brad Hills (out) · Leicester City: John Lundstram (out), Ben Nelson (out), Jakub Stolarczyk (out)
- Squad depth+1
Stockport County: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Leicester City: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/10DEF/8MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+15
Stockport County: 11 in (2 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Arttu Hoskonen to TBC, Mikael Mandron from St. Mirren, Jayden Fevrier to Blackburn Rovers · Leicester City: 16 in (3 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Warren O'Hora from Hibernian, Stephy Alvaro Mavididi to Watford, Emil Riis from Bristol City
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Thomas Kirkneutral
3.7 yellows and 0.17 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Stockport County last 2 played+100
W D — 3.31 scored / 0.00 conceded per match, 2.66 points per game (recency weighted).
- Leicester City last 12 played+26
L W D L L — 0.91 scored / 1.43 conceded per match, 1.14 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 67% · form 71% · goal model 68% · results history 83% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+47
Goal-expectancy model: Stockport County 2.20 xG, Leicester City 0.80 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Stockport County | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1646 | 1427 |
| Record | 15W 9D 4L | 5W 5D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 49.844410334766174 / 27.087902661959742 | 18.324065150753004 / 27.81144746845561 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 55% | 65% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 16 matches, 32.236521798642556–14.579681984672753 | 11 matches, 10.210765627092075–16.57490493130741 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%66.9% / 20.5% / 12.6%
- T-3dcompleteness 79.4%68.0% / 20.0% / 11.9%
- T-24hcompleteness 79.4%68.0% / 20.0% / 11.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Ryan Rydel Defenderout
- Brad Hills Defenderout
- John Lundstram Midfielderout
- Ben Nelson Defenderout
- Jakub Stolarczyk Goalkeeperout
Availability impact: 2.8% home attack, 4.7% away attack.