AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
Sunday 20 Sep, 12:30 UTC · AFAS Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- AZ Alkmaar attacking output+31
1.58 xG and 1.58 goals per match over the last 24.
- Telstar defensive record+18
1.72 xG and 1.72 goals conceded per match.
- AZ Alkmaar home record+49
24.4 scored / 11.6 conceded across 13 home matches.
- Telstar away record+22
21.1 scored / 29.3 conceded across 19 away matches.
- Squad availability-9
AZ Alkmaar: Stije Resink (out), Kees Smit (out), Jordy Clasie (out), Hobie Verhulst (out), Denso Kasius (out), Elijah Dijkstra (out) · Telstar: Marvin Peersman (out), Emirhan Demircan (out)
- Squad depth+1
AZ Alkmaar: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/3MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Telstar: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-6
AZ Alkmaar: 13 in (1 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Sam de Grand to Lommel SK, Valdemar Byskov from FC Midtjylland, Isak Jensen to Lorient · Telstar: 8 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Soufiane Hetli to Wydad Casablanca, Sem Valk from FC Dordrecht, Kay Tejan to Selangor
- AZ Alkmaar last 9 played+80
W W W W W — 2.37 scored / 0.76 conceded per match, 2.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Telstar last 12 played+24
L D L L W — 1.39 scored / 1.87 conceded per match, 1.22 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+57
2 previous meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2W 0D 0L, 3-1 on aggregate (+1.00 goal difference per meeting), 2.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 48% · form 48% · goal model 56% · results history 81% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+28
Goal-expectancy model: AZ Alkmaar 1.98 xG, Telstar 1.15 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1487 | 1440 |
| Record | 7W 8D 9L | 11W 10D 18L |
| Goals for / against | 37.94624587994787 / 37.478446284497366 | 54.647762374562184 / 67.14663353868504 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 13 matches, 24.398568337642818–11.594345194578654 | 19 matches, 21.090937045766253–29.26551478277361 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 79.4%56.0% / 23.1% / 21.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Stije Resink Midfielderout
- Kees Smit Midfielderout
- Jordy Clasie Midfielderout
- Hobie Verhulst Goalkeeperout
- Denso Kasius Defenderout
- Elijah Dijkstra Defenderout
- Marvin Peersman Defenderout
- Emirhan Demircan Attackerout
Availability impact: 9.0% home attack, 3.1% away attack.