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Europa LeagueT-7dlineups pending

Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth

Thursday 17 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Anoeta Stadium

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
REAL SOCIEDAD WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

38.0%
Real Sociedad
26.9%
Draw
35.1%
AFC Bournemouth
Home xG
1.60
Away xG
1.66
Likely score
1–1
10.5%
Completeness
72.5%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Real Sociedad attacking output+2

    1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 18.

  • AFC Bournemouth defensive record+11

    1.69 xG and 1.69 goals conceded per match.

  • Real Sociedad home record+10

    12.0 scored / 10.1 conceded across 9 home matches.

  • AFC Bournemouth away record+2

    15.9 scored / 16.2 conceded across 9 away matches.

  • Squad availability-5

    Real Sociedad: Gonçalo Guedes (out), Álvaro Odriozola  (out), Jon Gorrotxategi (out), Arsen Zakharyan (out) · AFC Bournemouth: Junior Kroupi  (out), Matai Akinmboni  (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Real Sociedad: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · AFC Bournemouth: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+8

    Real Sociedad: 5 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Mikel Goti to Real Oviedo, Héctor Fort from FC Barcelona, Jon Karrikaburu to Burgos · AFC Bournemouth: 9 in (0 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Matai Akinmboni  to Dundee, Will Dennis to Milton Keynes Dons, Michele Di Gregorio from Juventus

  • Real Sociedad last 4 played-11

    W D W L — 1.51 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 1.77 points per game (recency weighted).

  • AFC Bournemouth last 6 played-40

    W D D L W — 2.02 scored / 1.22 conceded per match, 1.30 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 38% · form 38% · goal model 36% · results history 46% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output-2

    Goal-expectancy model: Real Sociedad 1.60 xG, AFC Bournemouth 1.66 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricReal SociedadAFC Bournemouth
    Elo14811511
    Record6W 6D 7L6W 11D 3L
    Goals for / against26.48377933884788 / 28.1753463308865334.8521140714259 / 33.86530116448373
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Possession51%52%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split9 matches, 12.014739244905593–10.1359651055021129 matches, 15.906254179595804–16.18407300168362

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    44Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 72.5%
      38.0% / 26.9% / 35.1%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Real Sociedad
    • Gonçalo Guedes Attackerout
    • Álvaro Odriozola  Defenderout
    • Jon Gorrotxategi Midfielderout
    • Arsen Zakharyan Midfielderout
    AFC Bournemouth
    • Junior Kroupi  Attackerout
    • Matai Akinmboni  Defenderout

    Availability impact: 6.2% home attack, 3.1% away attack.