Málaga vs Villarreal
Thursday 17 Sep, 19:30 UTC · Estadio La Rosaleda
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Málaga attacking output-57
0.25 xG and 0.25 goals per match over the last 4.
- Villarreal defensive record+8
1.28 xG and 1.28 goals conceded per match.
- Málaga home recordneutral
1.0 scored / 1.0 conceded across 2 home matches.
- Villarreal away record+8
12.4 scored / 13.9 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Málaga: Julen Lobete (out) · Villarreal: Sergi Cardona (out)
- Squad depth+0
Málaga: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/10MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Villarreal: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+3
Málaga: 5 in (2 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Pablo Arriaza to Union Estepona, Jens Cajuste from Napoli, Juan Berrocal from Getafe · Villarreal: 4 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Nathan Saliba from Anderlecht, Thomas Partey to Al Shabab, Daniel Budesca to Córdoba
- Málaga last 4 played-74
D L D L — 0.24 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Villarreal last 5 played+31
L L L D D — 1.60 scored / 2.22 conceded per match, 0.38 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 16% · form 11% · goal model 23% · results history 39% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-23
Goal-expectancy model: Málaga 1.16 xG, Villarreal 1.85 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Málaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1264 | 1565 |
| Record | 0W 2D 2L | 11W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 0.9899967761116482 / 6.968511280908231 | 30.91038422174986 / 26.84714207286939 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 48% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 2 matches, 0.9814099129066289–0.9814099129066289 | 10 matches, 12.40975468510454–13.947804806547458 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%24.9% / 25.1% / 50.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Julen Lobete Attackerout
- Sergi Cardona Defenderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 1.4% away attack.