Roma vs Inter
Saturday 19 Sep, 16:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Roma attacking output+32
1.69 xG and 1.69 goals per match over the last 23.
- Inter defensive record-13
1.12 xG and 1.12 goals conceded per match.
- Roma home record+53
20.4 scored / 8.8 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Inter away record-38
18.3 scored / 10.8 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Roma: Evan Ndicka (out), Devyne Rensch (out), Leonardo Balerdi (out) · Inter: Djed Spence (out)
- Squad depth-1
Roma: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/6MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Inter: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/10MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-32
Roma: 15 in (0 on loan), 23 out including 0 regulars — Robinio Vaz to Hull City, Mattia Mannini to Benevento, Neil El Aynaoui to RB Leipzig · Inter: 5 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Kristjan Asllani to Al Jazira, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro to Monza, Yann Sommer to Club Brugge
- Roma last 6 played+100
D W W W W — 2.66 scored / 0.55 conceded per match, 2.41 points per game (recency weighted).
- Inter last 5 played-53
L W W W W — 2.29 scored / 1.22 conceded per match, 2.25 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 35% · form 36% · goal model 40% · results history 56% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+3
Goal-expectancy model: Roma 1.73 xG, Inter 1.63 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Roma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1648 | 1706 |
| Record | 15W 2D 6L | 15W 5D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 38.77394719357762 / 21.818776175567567 | 51.06422495576021 / 25.83243176115866 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 55% | 60% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 20.441914793761793–8.781276013039367 | 10 matches, 18.290454593435342–10.779602569766261 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%40.7% / 26.2% / 33.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Evan Ndicka Defenderout
- Devyne Rensch Defenderout
- Leonardo Balerdi Defenderout
- Djed Spence Defenderout
Availability impact: 4.2% home attack, 1.4% away attack.