Coventry City vs Aston Villa
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · The Coventry Building Society Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Coventry City attacking output-24
0.89 xG and 0.89 goals per match over the last 7.
- Aston Villa defensive record-9
0.99 xG and 0.99 goals conceded per match.
- Coventry City home record-25
0.5 scored / 1.5 conceded across 2 home matches.
- Aston Villa away record-15
22.3 scored / 17.4 conceded across 16 away matches.
- Squad availability+8
Coventry City: Haji Wright (out), Miguel Ángel Brau (out) · Aston Villa: Leon Bailey (out), João Gomes (out), Amadou Onana (out), Johan Manzambi (out), Brian Madjo (out)
- Squad depth+0
Coventry City: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Aston Villa: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+18
Coventry City: 9 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Liam Kitching to Sheffield United, Stephen Mfuni from Manchester City U21, Kai Andrews to Oxford United · Aston Villa: 16 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Leon Bailey to Olympiacos F.C., Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton, Emiliano Martínez to Chelsea
- Referee — Robert Jonesneutral
5.1 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.
- Coventry City last 7 played-36
L L W L L — 0.93 scored / 1.65 conceded per match, 0.73 points per game (recency weighted).
- Aston Villa last 5 played+40
W D L L W — 0.93 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 1.17 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 15% · form 11% · goal model 25% · results history 34% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-19
Goal-expectancy model: Coventry City 1.14 xG, Aston Villa 1.71 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Coventry City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1369 | 1682 |
| Record | 2W 0D 5L | 20W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 6.264382655807494 / 10.999115176172047 | 55.261833359889884 / 28.688051443314077 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 51% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 2 matches, 0.4984732945938895–1.5015267054061106 | 16 matches, 22.281200949491467–17.358963096158604 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 79.4%24.2% / 24.9% / 50.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Haji Wright Attackerout
- Miguel Ángel Brau Defenderout
- Leon Bailey Attackerout
- João Gomes Midfielderout
- Amadou Onana Midfielderout
- Johan Manzambi Midfielderout
- Brian Madjo Attackerout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 7.9% away attack.