FC Twente vs PSV
Sunday 20 Sep, 12:30 UTC · De Grolsch Veste
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- FC Twente attacking output+43
2.19 xG and 2.19 goals per match over the last 17.
- PSV defensive record-1
1.41 xG and 1.41 goals conceded per match.
- FC Twente home record+57
20.8 scored / 10.5 conceded across 9 home matches.
- PSV away record-26
18.1 scored / 12.8 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+15
FC Twente: Stav Lemkin (out), Kristian Hlynsson (out) · PSV: Sam Lammers (out), Sami Ouaissa (out), Mikkel Bro Hansen (out), Kiliann Sildillia (out), Jerdy Schouten (out), Alassane Pléa (out), Dennis Man (out), Adamo Nagalo (out)
- Squad depth+2
FC Twente: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · PSV: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/6MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-1
FC Twente: 7 in (2 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Issam El Maach to TBC, Michał Rosiak from Śląsk Wrocław, Taylor Booth to Real Salt Lake · PSV: 8 in (0 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Sam Lammers from FC Twente, Joël van den Berg to Celtic, Sami Ouaissa from NEC Nijmegen
- FC Twente last 8 played+50
W D W W D — 2.23 scored / 1.23 conceded per match, 1.85 points per game (recency weighted).
- PSV last 6 played-13
D W L D L — 1.67 scored / 1.40 conceded per match, 1.49 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 34% · form 34% · goal model 47% · results history 57% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+14
Goal-expectancy model: FC Twente 2.02 xG, PSV 1.60 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | FC Twente | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1654 | 1719 |
| Record | 9W 6D 3L | 11W 2D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 37.24146616118113 / 19.726932139788953 | 43.275066318370236 / 22.578380812120376 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 56% | 59% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 20.810743992131886–10.499785200865256 | 10 matches, 18.13763320115155–12.841014356682358 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%43.9% / 25.3% / 30.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Stav Lemkin Defenderout
- Kristian Hlynsson Midfielderout
- Sam Lammers Attackerout
- Sami Ouaissa Attackerout
- Mikkel Bro Hansen Attackerout
- Kiliann Sildillia Defenderout
- Jerdy Schouten Midfielderout
- Alassane Pléa Attackerout
- Dennis Man Attackerout
- Adamo Nagalo Defenderout
Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 12.3% away attack.