PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam
Sunday 13 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Philips Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- PSV attacking output+82
2.70 xG and 2.70 goals per match over the last 16.
- Sparta Rotterdam defensive record+19
1.65 xG and 1.65 goals conceded per match.
- PSV home record+100
25.1 scored / 9.7 conceded across 6 home matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam away record+24
9.2 scored / 12.5 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability-13
PSV: Sam Lammers (out), Sami Ouaissa (out), Mikkel Bro Hansen (out), Kiliann Sildillia (out), Jerdy Schouten (out), Alassane Pléa (out), Dennis Man (out), Adamo Nagalo (out) · Sparta Rotterdam: Cedric Hatenboer (out), Robin van Cruijsen (out), Max de Ligt (out)
- Squad depth+0
PSV: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/6MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Sparta Rotterdam: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+29
PSV: 8 in (0 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Sam Lammers from FC Twente, Joël van den Berg to Celtic, Sami Ouaissa from NEC Nijmegen · Sparta Rotterdam: 14 in (0 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Isaac Babadi from PSV, Ayoni Santos to PSV, Michael Brouwer from FC Utrecht
- Match conditionsneutral
moderate rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Danny Desmond Makkelieneutral
3.0 yellows and 0.08 reds per match across 12 tracked appointments.
- PSV last 6 played+13
D W L D L — 1.67 scored / 1.40 conceded per match, 1.49 points per game (recency weighted).
- Sparta Rotterdam last 4 played-11
D W L W — 2.11 scored / 1.88 conceded per match, 1.65 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 66% · form 69% · goal model 67% · results history 39% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+49
Goal-expectancy model: PSV 2.71 xG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | PSV | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1719 | 1510 |
| Record | 11W 2D 3L | 6W 3D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 43.275066318370236 / 22.578380812120376 | 20.59003812080236 / 23.12592197879712 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 59% | 49% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 25.0851860549331–9.729915966535163 | 7 matches, 9.161912601530346–12.492128728428261 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%58.9% / 21.3% / 19.8%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%58.9% / 21.3% / 19.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Sam Lammers Attackerout
- Sami Ouaissa Attackerout
- Mikkel Bro Hansen Attackerout
- Kiliann Sildillia Defenderout
- Jerdy Schouten Midfielderout
- Alassane Pléa Attackerout
- Dennis Man Attackerout
- Adamo Nagalo Defenderout
- Cedric Hatenboer Midfielderout
- Robin van Cruijsen Midfielderout
- Max de Ligt Defenderout
Availability impact: 12.3% home attack, 4.5% away attack.