Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan Athletic
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Hillsborough Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sheffield Wednesday attacking output+21
1.81 xG and 1.81 goals per match over the last 11.
- Wigan Athletic defensive record-0
0.97 xG and 0.97 goals conceded per match.
- Sheffield Wednesday home record+16
11.3 scored / 9.1 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Wigan Athletic away record+8
12.5 scored / 14.5 conceded across 13 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Sheffield Wednesday: Louie Barry (out) · Wigan Athletic: Joe Whitworth (out)
- Squad depth-0
Sheffield Wednesday: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Wigan Athletic: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/11MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+18
Sheffield Wednesday: 11 in (3 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Jaden Heskey from Manchester City U21, Reece James from Rotherham United, Ashley Maynard-Brewer to Gillingham · Wigan Athletic: 17 in (3 on loan), 27 out including 0 regulars — Ronan Darcy to TBC, Maleace Asamoah to Port Vale, Bradley Burrowes from Aston Villa U21
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Seb Stockbridgeneutral
5.1 yellows and 0.22 reds per match across 9 tracked appointments.
- Sheffield Wednesday last 11 played+36
W W W L L — 1.93 scored / 1.21 conceded per match, 2.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Wigan Athletic last 5 played+45
L W L D W — 1.59 scored / 2.48 conceded per match, 1.09 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 57% · form 57% · goal model 56% · results history 72% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+28
Goal-expectancy model: Sheffield Wednesday 1.90 xG, Wigan Athletic 1.07 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sheffield Wednesday | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1606 | 1488 |
| Record | 6W 1D 4L | 10W 9D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 19.86227436749448 / 13.89769840655231 | 28.011262711653195 / 29.006689657796052 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 43% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 11.304569852488338–9.129665402915531 | 13 matches, 12.500214770448013–14.487645729254126 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%56.6% / 23.2% / 20.3%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.1%57.4% / 22.8% / 19.8%
- T-24hcompleteness 83.1%57.4% / 22.8% / 19.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Louie Barry Attackerout
- Joe Whitworth Goalkeeperout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 1.7% away attack.