Levante vs Athletic Club
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:30 UTC · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Levante attacking output+13
1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 13.
- Athletic Club defensive record+12
1.50 xG and 1.50 goals conceded per match.
- Levante home record+32
10.6 scored / 6.7 conceded across 6 home matches.
- Athletic Club away record+48
11.4 scored / 21.9 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Athletic Club: Yeray Álvarez (out), Unai Egiluz (out), Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (out)
- Squad depth+0
Levante: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/10DEF/6MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Athletic Club: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/8MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-12
Levante: 7 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Xavi Grande to Académica, Carlos Álvarez to América, Martín Krug to Juventud Torremolinos · Athletic Club: 5 in (0 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Unai Vencedor to Burgos, Adama Boiro to West Ham United, Julen Agirrezabala to Racing Santander
- Levante last 3 played+50
D W D — 1.66 scored / 0.66 conceded per match, 1.66 points per game (recency weighted).
- Athletic Club last 3 played-52
W W L — 1.69 scored / 0.65 conceded per match, 2.02 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 60% · form 61% · goal model 60% · results history 35% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+35
Goal-expectancy model: Levante 2.02 xG, Athletic Club 0.96 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Levante | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1592 | 1450 |
| Record | 6W 4D 3L | 7W 4D 10L |
| Goals for / against | 19.060952784942106 / 12.255615949330945 | 24.933691661533455 / 31.486445902568732 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 44% | 45% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 10.595437500597033–6.69559728398221 | 11 matches, 11.40012693701195–21.866305852820506 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%51.9% / 24.9% / 23.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
- Yeray Álvarez Defenderout
- Unai Egiluz Defenderout
- Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielderout
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 4.4% away attack.