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Celta de Vigo vs Racing Santander

Saturday 19 Sep, 16:30 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
CELTA DE VIGO WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

43.2%
Celta de Vigo
25.9%
Draw
30.9%
Racing Santander
Home xG
1.89
Away xG
1.45
Likely score
1–1
9.9%
Completeness
68.1%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Celta de Vigo attacking output+5

    1.50 xG and 1.50 goals per match over the last 23.

  • Racing Santander defensive record+32

    2.01 xG and 2.01 goals conceded per match.

  • Celta de Vigo home record+6

    21.3 scored / 19.9 conceded across 11 home matches.

  • Racing Santander away record+50

    2.0 scored / 4.0 conceded across 2 away matches.

  • Squad availability+2

    Celta de Vigo: Ionuț Radu  (out), Javi Galán (out) · Racing Santander: Andrés Martín (out), Pedro Felipe (out), Pablo Ramón (out)

  • Squad depth-0

    Celta de Vigo: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/4MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Racing Santander: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/6DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-12

    Celta de Vigo: 13 in (2 on loan), 19 out including 0 regulars — Marc Vidal to Sabadell, Sebastián Cáceres from América, Carles Pérez to TBC · Racing Santander: 8 in (1 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Neco Celorio to Rayo Majadahonda, Gustavo Puerta to Olympiacos F.C., Diego Díaz to FC Andorra

  • Celta de Vigo last 5 played-29

    D D L L W — 0.61 scored / 1.18 conceded per match, 0.62 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Racing Santander last 4 played+13

    L W L D — 1.76 scored / 2.02 conceded per match, 1.00 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 48% · form 51% · goal model 47% · results history 33% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+15

    Goal-expectancy model: Celta de Vigo 1.89 xG, Racing Santander 1.45 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricCelta de VigoRacing Santander
    Elo14841435
    Record9W 3D 11L1W 1D 2L
    Goals for / against34.576385593 / 36.836833844570047.022381005753397 / 8.037828712190198
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Possession50%46%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split11 matches, 21.31941699616147–19.895985062347742 matches, 2.037420766576137–4.037420766576137

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    47Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 68.1%
      43.2% / 25.9% / 30.9%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Celta de Vigo
    • Ionuț Radu  Goalkeeperout
    • Javi Galán Defenderout
    Racing Santander
    • Andrés Martín Attackerout
    • Pedro Felipe Defenderout
    • Pablo Ramón Defenderout

    Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 4.5% away attack.