Manchester United vs Manchester City
Sunday 13 Sep, 15:30 UTC · Old Trafford
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Manchester United attacking output+16
1.40 xG and 1.40 goals per match over the last 21.
- Manchester City defensive record-38
0.68 xG and 0.68 goals conceded per match.
- Manchester United home record+23
16.6 scored / 11.6 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Manchester City away record-41
23.3 scored / 10.3 conceded across 16 away matches.
- Squad availability-7
Manchester United: Carlos Baleba (out), Mason Mount (out), Manuel Ugarte (out), Amad Diallo (out) · Manchester City: Jérémy Doku (out)
- Squad depth-0
Manchester United: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Manchester City: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+17
Manchester United: 8 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Chido Obi to Willem II, Toby Collyer to West Bromwich Albion, Carlos Baleba from Brighton & Hove Albion · Manchester City: 12 in (0 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Claudio Echeverri to Benfica, Iliman Ndiaye from Everton, Jeremy Monga to Swansea City
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Michael Oliverneutral
2.7 yellows and 0.09 reds per match across 11 tracked appointments.
- Manchester United last 4 played+66
W D W L — 2.79 scored / 1.47 conceded per match, 1.78 points per game (recency weighted).
- Manchester City last 5 played-88
W W W W W — 2.23 scored / 0.48 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 20% · form 17% · goal model 24% · results history 19% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-21
Goal-expectancy model: Manchester United 1.21 xG, Manchester City 1.85 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1519 | 1760 |
| Record | 8W 7D 6L | 20W 6D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 29.42161677175457 / 27.771079302286946 | 62.50645297579875 / 18.998466862190746 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | 60% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 16.566701853437046–11.600950760628729 | 16 matches, 23.289134381921375–10.250661430144126 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%22.8% / 23.8% / 53.4%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%22.8% / 23.8% / 53.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Carlos Baleba Midfielderout
- Mason Mount Midfielderout
- Manuel Ugarte Midfielderout
- Amad Diallo Attackerout
- Jérémy Doku Attackerout
Availability impact: 6.3% home attack, 1.7% away attack.