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EredivisieT-7dlineups pending

Ajax vs Excelsior

Saturday 19 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
AJAX WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

46.4%
Ajax
23.6%
Draw
30.0%
Excelsior
Home xG
2.20
Away xG
1.69
Likely score
1–1
8.2%
Completeness
76.3%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Ajax attacking output+62

    2.35 xG and 2.35 goals per match over the last 20.

  • Excelsior defensive record-1

    1.45 xG and 1.45 goals conceded per match.

  • Ajax home record+62

    17.8 scored / 9.1 conceded across 7 home matches.

  • Excelsior away record-21

    13.7 scored / 10.8 conceded across 7 away matches.

  • Squad availability-9

    Ajax: Maher Carrizo (out), Aaron Bouwman (out), Daley Blind (out), Steven Berghuis (out), Simon Adingra (out), Viktor Tsygankov (out), Amourricho van Axel Dongen   (out) · Excelsior: Noah Naujoks (out), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (out), Mario Domínguez (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Ajax: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Excelsior: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-24

    Ajax: 18 in (3 on loan), 20 out including 0 regulars — Amourricho van Axel Dongen   to TBC, Thilo Kehrer from Monaco, Simon Adingra from Sunderland · Excelsior: 10 in (3 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Stan Henderikx to FC Dordrecht, Nolan Martens to De Graafschap, Mathijs Tielemans to Aalborg BK

  • Ajax last 8 played+47

    L W W L W — 2.89 scored / 1.94 conceded per match, 1.84 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Excelsior last 5 played-97

    D W W D D — 2.82 scored / 0.88 conceded per match, 2.12 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 56% · form 62% · goal model 49% · results history 31% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+17

    Goal-expectancy model: Ajax 2.20 xG, Excelsior 1.69 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricAjaxExcelsior
Elo16801565
Record12W 5D 3L4W 4D 3L
Goals for / against47.09527312157745 / 27.09457162777182424.394449671596853 / 17.37122574639976
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession61%49%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split7 matches, 17.78938831904876–9.1236490351510667 matches, 13.689106372090146–10.765103480244232

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

49Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 76.3%
    46.4% / 23.6% / 30.0%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Ajax
  • Maher Carrizo Attackerout
  • Aaron Bouwman Defenderout
  • Daley Blind Defenderout
  • Steven Berghuis Attackerout
  • Simon Adingra Attackerout
  • Viktor Tsygankov Attackerout
  • Amourricho van Axel Dongen   Attackerout
Excelsior
  • Noah Naujoks Midfielderout
  • Alireza Jahanbakhsh Attackerout
  • Mario Domínguez Attackerout

Availability impact: 10.9% home attack, 5.3% away attack.