Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunday 13 Sep, 13:00 UTC · The Coventry Building Society Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Coventry City attacking output-24
0.89 xG and 0.89 goals per match over the last 7.
- Brighton & Hove Albion defensive record-8
1.11 xG and 1.11 goals conceded per match.
- Coventry City home record-25
0.5 scored / 1.5 conceded across 2 home matches.
- Brighton & Hove Albion away record-37
22.6 scored / 14.5 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+15
Coventry City: Haji Wright (out), Miguel Ángel Brau (out) · Brighton & Hove Albion: Femi Azeez (out), Stefanos Tzimas (out), Mats Wieffer (out), Georginio Rutter (out), Yankuba Minteh (out), Evan Ferguson (out), Jason Steele (out), Jack Hinshelwood (out)
- Squad depth+0
Coventry City: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Brighton & Hove Albion: 36 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+14
Coventry City: 9 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Liam Kitching to Sheffield United, Stephen Mfuni from Manchester City U21, Kai Andrews to Oxford United · Brighton & Hove Albion: 13 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Femi Azeez from Millwall, Eiran Cashin to Derby County, Matías Orozco to Castellón
- Match conditionsneutral
broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Tony Harringtonneutral
2.0 yellows and 0.33 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Coventry City last 7 played-36
L L W L L — 0.93 scored / 1.65 conceded per match, 0.73 points per game (recency weighted).
- Brighton & Hove Albion last 6 played-90
D L W W W — 3.04 scored / 1.24 conceded per match, 1.75 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 20% · form 18% · goal model 21% · results history 12% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-28
Goal-expectancy model: Coventry City 1.19 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 2.03 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1369 | 1616 |
| Record | 2W 0D 5L | 9W 9D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 6.264382655807494 / 10.999115176172047 | 39.21914567763727 / 23.251806206281955 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 58% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 2 matches, 0.4984732945938895–1.5015267054061106 | 11 matches, 22.574888910563594–14.478686516134196 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.1%19.9% / 22.3% / 57.8%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.1%19.9% / 22.3% / 57.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Haji Wright Attackerout
- Miguel Ángel Brau Defenderout
- Femi Azeez Midfielderout
- Stefanos Tzimas Attackerout
- Mats Wieffer Defenderout
- Georginio Rutter Attackerout
- Yankuba Minteh Attackerout
- Evan Ferguson Attackerout
- Jason Steele Goalkeeperout
- Jack Hinshelwood Midfielderout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 12.5% away attack.