Luton Town vs Bradford City
Saturday 19 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Kenilworth Road Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Luton Town attacking output+23
1.96 xG and 1.96 goals per match over the last 19.
- Bradford City defensive record+4
1.23 xG and 1.23 goals conceded per match.
- Luton Town home record+62
20.3 scored / 7.8 conceded across 10 home matches.
- Bradford City away record+20
13.8 scored / 17.4 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Luton Town: Jordan Clark (out), Shandon Baptiste (out) · Bradford City: Zac Hadi (out)
- Squad depth+2
Luton Town: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/7MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Bradford City: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/10DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-1
Luton Town: 8 in (1 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Lasse Nordås to Cracovia Kraków, Tom Holmes to TBC, Tudor Mendel-Idowu from Ipswich Town U21 · Bradford City: 9 in (4 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — George Pratt from Blackburn Rovers, Cameron Dawson from Rotherham United, Reece Welch from Everton U21
- Luton Town last 5 played-17
L D D D L — 1.31 scored / 1.66 conceded per match, 0.65 points per game (recency weighted).
- Bradford City last 4 played-38
W W L W — 1.52 scored / 0.76 conceded per match, 2.25 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 59% · form 61% · goal model 55% · results history 12% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+28
Goal-expectancy model: Luton Town 2.01 xG, Bradford City 1.18 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Luton Town | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1677 | 1542 |
| Record | 12W 4D 3L | 9W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 37.28225794557189 / 18.460716875668563 | 25.474147660746638 / 23.293905714673624 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 20.279790391246415–7.834034608688596 | 9 matches, 13.84784409573705–17.44700951736628 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%46.0% / 22.9% / 31.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Jordan Clark Midfielderout
- Shandon Baptiste Midfielderout
- Zac Hadi Goalkeeperout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 1.7% away attack.