Sassuolo vs Juventus
Sunday 13 Sep, 18:45 UTC · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sassuolo attacking output-8
0.92 xG and 0.92 goals per match over the last 14.
- Juventus defensive record-46
0.47 xG and 0.47 goals conceded per match.
- Sassuolo home record+1
8.1 scored / 7.9 conceded across 6 home matches.
- Juventus away record-29
9.9 scored / 4.7 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Sassuolo: Duje Caleta-Car (out), Darryl Bakola (out), Sebastiano Esposito (out), Ismaël Koné (out) · Juventus: Pape Matar Sarr (out), Weston McKennie (out), Kenan Yıldız (out), Juan Cabal (out), Andrea Cambiaso (out), Federico Gatti (out), Jeff Ekhator (out)
- Squad depth-0
Sassuolo: 41 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/14DEF/10MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Juventus: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-32
Sassuolo: 24 in (1 on loan), 32 out including 0 regulars — Alessandro Di Bitonto to Avellino, Duje Caleta-Car from Olympique Lyonnais, Edoardo Iannoni to Hellas Verona · Juventus: 7 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan David to Atlético de Madrid, Arthur Melo to Santos, Fabio Miretti to Beşiktaş
- Match conditionsneutral
scattered clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Juan Luca Sacchineutral
4.3 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 4 tracked appointments.
- Sassuolo last 3 played+1
D W L — 1.68 scored / 1.67 conceded per match, 1.34 points per game (recency weighted).
- Juventus last 6 played-54
D W W W W — 1.43 scored / 0.35 conceded per match, 2.39 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 22% · form 18% · goal model 28% · results history 18% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-11
Goal-expectancy model: Sassuolo 1.08 xG, Juventus 1.42 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1451 | 1670 |
| Record | 4W 4D 6L | 11W 8D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 12.817480857902808 / 16.780149157259075 | 30.052647520862642 / 9.333861228519833 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 8.0592401526689–7.898827580130163 | 9 matches, 9.939856788460022–4.664472851519711 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%24.5% / 25.8% / 49.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%24.5% / 25.8% / 49.7%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Duje Caleta-Car Defenderout
- Darryl Bakola Midfielderout
- Sebastiano Esposito Attackerout
- Ismaël Koné Midfielderout
- Pape Matar Sarr Midfielderout
- Weston McKennie Midfielderout
- Kenan Yıldız Attackerout
- Juan Cabal Defenderout
- Andrea Cambiaso Defenderout
- Federico Gatti Defenderout
- Jeff Ekhator Attackerout
Availability impact: 6.2% home attack, 10.4% away attack.