Liverpool vs Fulham
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Anfield
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Liverpool attacking output+19
1.48 xG and 1.48 goals per match over the last 25.
- Fulham defensive record+1
1.12 xG and 1.12 goals conceded per match.
- Liverpool home record+51
22.6 scored / 10.4 conceded across 12 home matches.
- Fulham away record+36
5.7 scored / 12.9 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Liverpool: Hugo Ekitiké (out), Wataru Endo (out), Joe Gomez (out), Federico Chiesa (out) · Fulham: Hugo Larsson (out), Tom Cairney (out), Kevin (out), Joachim Andersen (out)
- Squad depth+2
Liverpool: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 5GK/9DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Fulham: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+1
Liverpool: 4 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Lucca Brughmans from Genk, Harvey Elliott to Valencia, Stefan Bajcetic to Celta Fortuna · Fulham: 6 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — David Affengruber from Elche, Manuel Ángel from Real Madrid II, Hugo Larsson from Eintracht Frankfurt
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Thomas Bramallneutral
4.5 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 8 tracked appointments.
- Liverpool last 5 played+39
W W D D W — 1.99 scored / 1.21 conceded per match, 2.05 points per game (recency weighted).
- Fulham last 4 played+46
L L L W — 1.32 scored / 2.23 conceded per match, 0.13 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 42% · form 42% · goal model 54% · results history 82% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+25
Goal-expectancy model: Liverpool 1.73 xG, Fulham 0.97 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Liverpool | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1555 | 1553 |
| Record | 12W 4D 8L | 10W 4D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 36.940118359861714 / 31.318160719287583 | 26.556089223748195 / 23.57315766463846 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 58% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 12 matches, 22.61015605491665–10.432667881384255 | 10 matches, 5.699784810375158–12.887134443724564 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%53.3% / 24.9% / 21.8%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%53.8% / 24.9% / 21.3%
- T-24hcompleteness 80.0%53.8% / 24.9% / 21.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Hugo Ekitiké Attackerout
- Wataru Endo Midfielderout
- Joe Gomez Defenderout
- Federico Chiesa Attackerout
- Hugo Larsson Midfielderout
- Tom Cairney Midfielderout
- Kevin Attackerout
- Joachim Andersen Defenderout
Availability impact: 6.3% home attack, 6.2% away attack.