FC Bayern München vs FC Union Berlin
Friday 18 Sep, 18:30 UTC · Allianz Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- FC Bayern München attacking output+100
3.75 xG and 3.75 goals per match over the last 23.
- FC Union Berlin defensive record+39
1.82 xG and 1.82 goals conceded per match.
- FC Bayern München home record+100
38.6 scored / 12.2 conceded across 10 home matches.
- FC Union Berlin away record+49
11.2 scored / 22.1 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+9
FC Bayern München: Jamal Musiala (out), Serge Gnabry (out), Lennart Karl (out) · FC Union Berlin: Stanley Nsoki (out), Matheo Raab (out), Andrej Ilic (out), Andrik Markgraf (out), Robert Skov (out), Oliver Burke (out), Marvin Friedrich (out)
- Squad depth-1
FC Bayern München: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/7MID/3FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Union Berlin: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+1
FC Bayern München: 8 in (0 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Arijon Ibrahimovic to FC Augsburg, Leon Goretzka to Aston Villa, João Palhinha to Benfica · FC Union Berlin: 10 in (2 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Kastriot Imeri from Young Boys, Oluwaseun Ogbemudia to Waldhof Mannheim, Ilyas Ansah to Hull City
- FC Bayern München last 6 played+100
W D W D W — 3.18 scored / 0.42 conceded per match, 2.30 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Union Berlin last 4 played+89
L D L D — 1.45 scored / 3.24 conceded per match, 0.46 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 83% · form 83% · goal model 89% · results history 85% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+100
Goal-expectancy model: FC Bayern München 3.95 xG, FC Union Berlin 0.74 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1914 | 1388 |
| Record | 21W 1D 1L | 3W 7D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 86.1689722659991 / 26.202032858291723 | 19.08409843016608 / 30.996786542409502 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 66% | 41% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 38.556233775119885–12.172810101393893 | 11 matches, 11.207181918241975–22.094119303087684 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%82.4% / 13.6% / 4.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Jamal Musiala Midfielderout
- Serge Gnabry Attackerout
- Lennart Karl Midfielderout
- Stanley Nsoki Defenderout
- Matheo Raab Goalkeeperout
- Andrej Ilic Attackerout
- Andrik Markgraf Defenderout
- Robert Skov Midfielderout
- Oliver Burke Attackerout
- Marvin Friedrich Defenderout
Availability impact: 4.8% home attack, 10.5% away attack.