AC Milan vs Benfica
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- AC Milan attacking output+0
1.34 xG and 1.34 goals per match over the last 19.
- Benfica defensive record-12
1.08 xG and 1.08 goals conceded per match.
- AC Milan home record+9
11.6 scored / 10.0 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Benfica away record+5
11.9 scored / 12.9 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
AC Milan: Matteo Gabbia (out), Warren Bondo (out) · Benfica: Gianluca Prestianni (out)
- Squad depth-1
AC Milan: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Benfica: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/7MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-15
AC Milan: 5 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Christopher Nkunku to RB Leipzig, Ismaël Bennacer to TBC, Sankhoun Diawara from Troyes
- AC Milan last 5 played+51
D W W W W — 1.67 scored / 0.64 conceded per match, 2.33 points per game (recency weighted).
- Benfica last 12 played-84
W W D W W — 2.75 scored / 1.07 conceded per match, 1.99 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 38% · form 40% · goal model 33% · results history 46% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-8
Goal-expectancy model: AC Milan 1.46 xG, Benfica 1.68 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | AC Milan | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1608 | 1638 |
| Record | 10W 5D 4L | 11W 2D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 25.392515197310246 / 15.247206136276331 | 42.46626840233441 / 21.570048450681025 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 53% | 52% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 11.573848220207545–9.978481200141562 | 10 matches, 11.885051832410992–12.91792949848202 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%36.6% / 26.8% / 36.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Matteo Gabbia Defenderout
- Warren Bondo Midfielderout
- Gianluca Prestianni Attackerout
Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 1.7% away attack.