Blackpool vs Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 19 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Bloomfield Road
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Blackpool attacking output+4
1.37 xG and 1.37 goals per match over the last 28.
- Plymouth Argyle defensive record-14
1.15 xG and 1.15 goals conceded per match.
- Blackpool home record+42
22.5 scored / 10.9 conceded across 14 home matches.
- Plymouth Argyle away record-93
17.3 scored / 4.2 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Blackpool: Josh Earl (out)
- Squad depth-1
Blackpool: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Plymouth Argyle: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/9MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+4
Blackpool: 10 in (1 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Kylian Kouassi to Colchester United, Jerry Yates from Luton Town, Jordan Williams from Portsmouth · Plymouth Argyle: 8 in (2 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Oliver Irow from Tottenham U21, Brendan Wiredu to Salford City, Alex Mitchell from Charlton Athletic
- Blackpool last 2 played-90
L L — 1.00 scored / 2.80 conceded per match, 0.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Plymouth Argyle last 3 played+49
W L L — 1.67 scored / 2.64 conceded per match, 1.03 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 36% · form 38% · goal model 31% · results history 20% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-10
Goal-expectancy model: Blackpool 1.48 xG, Plymouth Argyle 1.78 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Blackpool | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1580 | 1629 |
| Record | 15W 3D 10L | 8W 5D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 38.432282149988126 / 27.651016286023545 | 33.76894658750698 / 19.558495385044814 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 52% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 14 matches, 22.483188509175132–10.854537251802359 | 7 matches, 17.282950487289632–4.207709087653937 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%31.1% / 26.5% / 42.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Josh Earl Defenderout
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 1.4% home attack, 0.0% away attack.