Ipswich Town vs Arsenal
Tuesday 15 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Portman Road Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Ipswich Town attacking output+4
1.34 xG and 1.34 goals per match over the last 16.
- Arsenal defensive record-31
0.90 xG and 0.90 goals conceded per match.
- Ipswich Town home record-6
11.5 scored / 12.4 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Arsenal away record-44
26.5 scored / 14.2 conceded across 14 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Ipswich Town: Azor Matusiwa (out), Kasey McAteer (out), Jaden Philogene (out), Florentino (out), Jack Taylor (out) · Arsenal: Jurriën Timber (out), Bruno Guimarães (out), William Saliba (out)
- Squad depth+0
Ipswich Town: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Arsenal: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-18
Ipswich Town: 7 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Zian Flemming from Burnley, Ali Al-Hamadi to Sheffield Wednesday, Ben Johnson to Stoke City · Arsenal: 1 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Gabriel Martinelli to Al Hilal, Reiss Nelson to TBC, Christos Tzolis from Club Brugge
- Referee — Peter Bankesneutral
3.9 yellows and 0.11 reds per match across 9 tracked appointments.
- Ipswich Town last 12 played-27
L L W W L — 1.54 scored / 2.09 conceded per match, 1.36 points per game (recency weighted).
- Arsenal last 6 played-76
W W W W W — 1.76 scored / 0.24 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head-100
1 previous meetings: Ipswich Town 0W 0D 1L, 0-4 on aggregate (-4.00 goal difference per meeting), 4.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 22% · form 21% · goal model 20% · results history 8% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-31
Goal-expectancy model: Ipswich Town 1.17 xG, Arsenal 2.10 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Ipswich Town | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1419 | 1628 |
| Record | 6W 2D 9L | 16W 7D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 21.486888383588035 / 32.28046619875136 | 45.835959654670724 / 26.232048208592833 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 63% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 11.499357922684188–12.443546202580833 | 14 matches, 26.50040980160992–14.16788793156558 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 79.4%19.7% / 22.3% / 58.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Azor Matusiwa Midfielderout
- Kasey McAteer Midfielderout
- Jaden Philogene Attackerout
- Florentino Midfielderout
- Jack Taylor Midfielderout
- Jurriën Timber Defenderout
- Bruno Guimarães Midfielderout
- William Saliba Defenderout
Availability impact: 7.8% home attack, 4.4% away attack.