Monza vs Sassuolo
Friday 18 Sep, 18:45 UTC · U-Power Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Monza attacking output-11
0.96 xG and 0.96 goals per match over the last 12.
- Sassuolo defensive record-8
1.20 xG and 1.20 goals conceded per match.
- Monza home record-81
6.3 scored / 14.4 conceded across 5 home matches.
- Sassuolo away record+26
4.8 scored / 8.9 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Monza: Idrissa Touré (out), Patrick Ciurria (out), Matteo Pessina (out), Gustavo Varela (out), Leonardo Colombo (out) · Sassuolo: Duje Caleta-Car (out), Darryl Bakola (out), Sebastiano Esposito (out), Ismaël Koné (out)
- Squad depth+0
Monza: 37 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/11DEF/7MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Sassuolo: 41 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/14DEF/10MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+9
Monza: 15 in (0 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Saba Goglichidze from Udinese, Solomon Loubao to Catanzaro, Filippo Delli Carri to Sampdoria · Sassuolo: 24 in (1 on loan), 32 out including 0 regulars — Alessandro Di Bitonto to Avellino, Duje Caleta-Car from Olympique Lyonnais, Edoardo Iannoni to Hellas Verona
- Monza last 12 played-68
D L L L L — 1.20 scored / 2.56 conceded per match, 0.35 points per game (recency weighted).
- Sassuolo last 3 played-1
D W L — 1.68 scored / 1.67 conceded per match, 1.34 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 23% · form 21% · goal model 27% · results history 18% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-15
Goal-expectancy model: Monza 1.22 xG, Sassuolo 1.67 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1244 | 1451 |
| Record | 1W 2D 9L | 4W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 11.543427350498796 / 29.592903749793972 | 12.817480857902808 / 16.780149157259075 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 41% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 5 matches, 6.300855503904002–14.423561389156031 | 8 matches, 4.762424720950647–8.88247491376731 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%25.0% / 25.0% / 50.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Idrissa Touré Midfielderout
- Patrick Ciurria Midfielderout
- Matteo Pessina Midfielderout
- Gustavo Varela Attackerout
- Leonardo Colombo Midfielderout
- Duje Caleta-Car Defenderout
- Darryl Bakola Midfielderout
- Sebastiano Esposito Attackerout
- Ismaël Koné Midfielderout
Availability impact: 8.1% home attack, 6.2% away attack.