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La LigaT-7dlineups pending

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia

Tuesday 15 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

48.1%
Deportivo Alavés
25.7%
Draw
26.2%
Valencia
Home xG
1.69
Away xG
1.22
Likely score
1–1
11.0%
Completeness
68.8%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Deportivo Alavés attacking output+12

    1.44 xG and 1.44 goals per match over the last 18.

  • Valencia defensive record+6

    1.25 xG and 1.25 goals conceded per match.

  • Deportivo Alavés home record+10

    12.0 scored / 10.4 conceded across 8 home matches.

  • Valencia away record+7

    10.2 scored / 11.4 conceded across 9 away matches.

  • Squad availability+7

    Deportivo Alavés: Mikel Rodriguez (out), Facundo Garcés (out) · Valencia: Javi Guerra (out), Sergi Canós  (out), Justin de Haas (out), Dimitri Foulquier  (out), Diego López  (out)

  • Squad depth-1

    Deportivo Alavés: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Valencia: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-13

    Deportivo Alavés: 12 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Jesús Owono to FC Andorra, Moussa Diarra to Al Wahda, Nikola Maras to TBC · Valencia: 9 in (2 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Alberto Marí to Honvéd, André Almeida to Racing Santander, Alberto Marí to TBC

  • Deportivo Alavés last 2 played+100

    W W — 3.05 scored / 1.03 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Valencia last 3 played+100

    L L L — 0.33 scored / 3.05 conceded per match, 0.00 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 34% · form 31% · goal model 47% · results history 86% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+16

    Goal-expectancy model: Deportivo Alavés 1.69 xG, Valencia 1.22 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricDeportivo AlavésValencia
    Elo14441509
    Record5W 5D 8L7W 6D 6L
    Goals for / against25.84624537717167 / 31.55711452869363523.122222672302595 / 22.437729575911863
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Possession46%47%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split8 matches, 12.027887901955872–10.4405884302045289 matches, 10.198399756951268–11.369775164291344

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    50Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 68.8%
      48.1% / 25.7% / 26.2%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Deportivo Alavés
    • Mikel Rodriguez Midfielderout
    • Facundo Garcés Defenderout
    Valencia
    • Javi Guerra Midfielderout
    • Sergi Canós  Attackerout
    • Justin de Haas Defenderout
    • Dimitri Foulquier  Defenderout
    • Diego López  Attackerout

    Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 7.6% away attack.