Mansfield Town vs Huddersfield Town
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · One Call Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Mansfield Town attacking output+16
1.73 xG and 1.73 goals per match over the last 26.
- Huddersfield Town defensive record+8
1.66 xG and 1.66 goals conceded per match.
- Mansfield Town home record+38
20.0 scored / 12.5 conceded across 10 home matches.
- Huddersfield Town away record+26
17.9 scored / 25.1 conceded across 14 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
Huddersfield Town: Herbie Kane (out)
- Squad depth-1
Mansfield Town: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/10DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Huddersfield Town: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+16
Mansfield Town: 4 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — George Abbott from Tottenham U21, Will Evans to Plymouth Argyle, Liam Thompson from Derby County · Huddersfield Town: 10 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Cameron Humphreys from Ipswich Town, Antony Evans to Walsall, Tom Iorpenda to Swansea City
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — M. Coyneutral
3.2 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Mansfield Town last 3 played-78
L L W — 0.48 scored / 2.05 conceded per match, 0.36 points per game (recency weighted).
- Huddersfield Town last 6 played-36
D W W D D — 1.75 scored / 1.04 conceded per match, 1.95 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 59% · form 61% · goal model 54% · results history 8% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+25
Goal-expectancy model: Mansfield Town 1.98 xG, Huddersfield Town 1.23 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Mansfield Town | Huddersfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1592 | 1454 |
| Record | 12W 7D 6L | 7W 11D 10L |
| Goals for / against | 45.077233061152356 / 30.78191289927647 | 41.08816649238628 / 46.35201514245582 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 48% | 53% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 20.03514102350046–12.478700382315084 | 14 matches, 17.87003543222829–25.139965286678674 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%44.4% / 22.8% / 32.8%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%45.1% / 22.3% / 32.5%
- T-24hcompleteness 80.0%45.1% / 22.3% / 32.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
- Herbie Kane Midfielderout
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 1.6% away attack.