RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Sunday 13 Sep, 13:30 UTC · Red Bull Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- RB Leipzig attacking output+35
2.07 xG and 2.07 goals per match over the last 16.
- Hamburger SV defensive record+36
1.80 xG and 1.80 goals conceded per match.
- RB Leipzig home record+50
20.6 scored / 11.6 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Hamburger SV away record+50
15.8 scored / 33.9 conceded across 18 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
RB Leipzig: Maxime Estève (out), Leopold Zingerle (out), Christoph Baumgartner (out), Rocco Reitz (out), Brajan Gruda (out), Assan Ouédraogo (out), Rômulo (out), Ørjan Nyland (out), Lukas Klostermann (out) · Hamburger SV: Jean-Luc Dompé (out), Warmed Omari (out), Jordan Torunarigha (out), Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit (out), Fernando Dickes (out), Albert Sambi Lokonga (out), Miro Muheim (out)
- Squad depth-0
RB Leipzig: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Hamburger SV: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+27
RB Leipzig: 9 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Arthur Vermeeren to Antwerp, Joyeux Masanka Bungi to Stuttgart II, Jonathan Norbye to Haugesund · Hamburger SV: 16 in (2 on loan), 23 out including 0 regulars — Daniel Elfadli to LASK, David Møller Wolfe from Wolverhampton Wanderers, Zakaria El Ouahdi from Genk
- Match conditionsneutral
moderate rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Florian Badstübnerneutral
1.4 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- RB Leipzig last 5 played-25
L L W W W — 1.69 scored / 2.19 conceded per match, 1.25 points per game (recency weighted).
- Hamburger SV last 12 played+72
L L D W W — 0.97 scored / 2.41 conceded per match, 0.84 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+57
2 previous meetings: RB Leipzig 2W 0D 0L, 4-2 on aggregate (+1.00 goal difference per meeting), 3.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 72% · form 74% · goal model 70% · results history 60% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+50
Goal-expectancy model: RB Leipzig 2.41 xG, Hamburger SV 0.92 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1676 | 1397 |
| Record | 11W 1D 3L | 9W 11D 17L |
| Goals for / against | 33.06395694728747 / 20.09563810385253 | 39.4489836591742 / 64.8786586971941 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 58% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 20.608127228292215–11.581318595408918 | 18 matches, 15.7789038657826–33.897302380134356 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 86.9%66.5% / 19.5% / 14.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 86.9%66.5% / 19.5% / 14.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Maxime Estève Defenderout
- Leopold Zingerle Goalkeeperout
- Christoph Baumgartner Midfielderout
- Rocco Reitz Midfielderout
- Brajan Gruda Midfielderout
- Assan Ouédraogo Midfielderout
- Rômulo Attackerout
- Ørjan Nyland Goalkeeperout
- Lukas Klostermann Defenderout
- Jean-Luc Dompé Attackerout
- Warmed Omari Defenderout
- Jordan Torunarigha Defenderout
- Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Attackerout
- Fernando Dickes Goalkeeperout
- Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielderout
- Miro Muheim Defenderout
Availability impact: 13.5% home attack, 10.5% away attack.