Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Home Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Plymouth Argyle attacking output+20
1.99 xG and 1.99 goals per match over the last 17.
- Barnsley defensive record+25
1.75 xG and 1.75 goals conceded per match.
- Plymouth Argyle home record+3
16.2 scored / 15.6 conceded across 10 home matches.
- Barnsley away record+22
16.7 scored / 23.3 conceded across 15 away matches.
- Squad availabilityneutral
No absentees reported by the connected providers.
- Squad depth-0
Plymouth Argyle: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/9MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Barnsley: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+26
Plymouth Argyle: 8 in (2 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Oliver Irow from Tottenham U21, Brendan Wiredu to Salford City, Alex Mitchell from Charlton Athletic · Barnsley: 17 in (2 on loan), 24 out including 0 regulars — Corey O'Keeffe to Bradford City, Kelechi Nwakali to Omonia 29is Maiou, Ben Hamed Touré from Annecy
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Martin Woodsneutral
4.2 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- Plymouth Argyle last 3 played-49
W L L — 1.67 scored / 2.64 conceded per match, 1.03 points per game (recency weighted).
- Barnsley last 4 played+100
L L D D — 0.62 scored / 3.01 conceded per match, 0.07 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 70% · form 71% · goal model 64% · results history 72% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+42
Goal-expectancy model: Plymouth Argyle 2.27 xG, Barnsley 1.02 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Plymouth Argyle | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1629 | 1379 |
| Record | 8W 5D 3L | 5W 10D 14L |
| Goals for / against | 33.76894658750698 / 19.558495385044814 | 30.513664516497396 / 50.779158900041125 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 52% | 50% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 16.24390184299672–15.626398669796881 | 15 matches, 16.743852581932565–23.32421136741711 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%62.8% / 21.5% / 15.6%
- T-3dcompleteness 76.3%63.9% / 21.0% / 15.1%
- T-24hcompleteness 76.3%63.9% / 21.0% / 15.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 0.0% away attack.