Venezia vs Fiorentina
Friday 11 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Venezia attacking output-33
0.82 xG and 0.82 goals per match over the last 12.
- Fiorentina defensive record+8
0.94 xG and 0.94 goals conceded per match.
- Venezia home record-56
3.5 scored / 10.1 conceded across 6 home matches.
- Fiorentina away record+6
12.7 scored / 14.2 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Venezia: Marin Šverko (out), Matías Moreno (out), Bartol Franjic (out), Andrea Adorante (out) · Fiorentina: Christ Inao Oulaï (out), Fabiano Parisi (out), Pedro Gonçalves (out)
- Squad depth+1
Venezia: 41 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/12DEF/13MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Fiorentina: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activityneutral
Venezia: 20 in (0 on loan), 35 out including 0 regulars — Rufai Mohammed from Elfsborg, Emil Bohinen to Cesena, Alvin Okoro to Südtirol · Fiorentina: 22 in (0 on loan), 38 out including 0 regulars — Antonín Barák to APOEL, Moise Kean to Como, Albert Gudmundsson to Lazio
- Match conditionsneutral
moderate rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Francesco Fourneauneutral
3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Venezia last 12 played-75
L L L L L — 0.75 scored / 2.24 conceded per match, 0.15 points per game (recency weighted).
- Fiorentina last 6 played+100
L L L L W — 0.74 scored / 2.79 conceded per match, 0.27 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+57
1 previous meetings: Venezia 1W 0D 0L, 2-1 on aggregate (+1.00 goal difference per meeting), 3.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 16% · form 12% · goal model 25% · results history 45% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-17
Goal-expectancy model: Venezia 1.08 xG, Fiorentina 1.60 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1280 | 1570 |
| Record | 1W 2D 9L | 12W 9D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 9.86060915824061 / 24.288878845289187 | 32.279382126239945 / 24.508346959044797 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | 49% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 3.4613495647586707–10.145774416001977 | 12 matches, 12.721000365428093–14.165075964422936 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%26.8% / 25.0% / 48.3%
- T-3dcompleteness 75.6%26.8% / 25.0% / 48.3%
- T-24hcompleteness 83.1%26.5% / 24.8% / 48.7%
- T-3hcompleteness 86.9%26.3% / 24.6% / 49.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Marin Šverko Defenderout
- Matías Moreno Defenderout
- Bartol Franjic Defenderout
- Andrea Adorante Attackerout
- Christ Inao Oulaï Midfielderout
- Fabiano Parisi Defenderout
- Pedro Gonçalves Attackerout
Availability impact: 5.9% home attack, 4.7% away attack.