Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · BayArena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen attacking output+29
1.80 xG and 1.80 goals per match over the last 19.
- Celje defensive record+18
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals conceded per match.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen home record+20
19.0 scored / 15.5 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Celje away record-5
11.9 scored / 11.4 conceded across 6 away matches.
- Squad availability-17
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Tim Oermann (out), Victor Boniface (out), Nathan Tella (out), Eliesse Ben Seghir (out), Montrell Culbreath (out), Jonas Hofmann (out), Kennet Eichhorn (out), Martin Terrier (out), Robert Andrich (out), Guéla Doué (out) · Celje: Jost Pisek (out), Artemijus Tutyškinas (out), Łukasz Bejger (out)
- Squad depth-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/5MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Celje: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/8MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-19
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 18 in (0 on loan), 19 out including 0 regulars — Moussa Diaby from Al Ittihad, Jeanuël Belocian to Racing Santander, Guéla Doué from Strasbourg · Celje: 14 in (8 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Luka Tičić from FK Nizjni Novgorod, Zan Zuzek from Gençlerbirliği, Blaz Kramer from Konyaspor
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen last 8 played+47
W L D W D — 1.94 scored / 1.01 conceded per match, 1.62 points per game (recency weighted).
- Celje last 3 played+1
L W L — 1.33 scored / 1.34 conceded per match, 0.98 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 52% · form 54% · goal model 45% · results history 64% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+11
Goal-expectancy model: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.88 xG, Celje 1.56 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1569 | 1494 |
| Record | 9W 5D 5L | 3W 6D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 34.15762057936858 / 27.843473949084796 | 22.24805978817624 / 20.55696719450553 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 60% | 59% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 19.030716449241577–15.502228443175664 | 6 matches, 11.904226267812508–11.360280733897573 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%48.6% / 24.1% / 27.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Tim Oermann Defenderout
- Victor Boniface Attackerout
- Nathan Tella Attackerout
- Eliesse Ben Seghir Attackerout
- Montrell Culbreath Attackerout
- Jonas Hofmann Midfielderout
- Kennet Eichhorn Midfielderout
- Martin Terrier Attackerout
- Robert Andrich Midfielderout
- Guéla Doué Defenderout
- Jost Pisek Midfielderout
- Artemijus Tutyškinas Defenderout
- Łukasz Bejger Defenderout
Availability impact: 15.1% home attack, 4.4% away attack.