Ajax vs Willem II
Tuesday 15 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Ajax attacking output+62
2.35 xG and 2.35 goals per match over the last 20.
- Willem II defensive record+74
2.73 xG and 2.73 goals conceded per match.
- Ajax home record+62
17.8 scored / 9.1 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Willem II away record+92
4.4 scored / 13.5 conceded across 5 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Ajax: Maher Carrizo (out), Aaron Bouwman (out), Daley Blind (out), Steven Berghuis (out), Simon Adingra (out), Viktor Tsygankov (out), Amourricho van Axel Dongen (out) · Willem II: Vito van Crooij (out), Thomas Didillon-Hödl (out), Thijs Muller (out), Jari Schuurman (out), Justin Hoogma (out), Amine Lachkar (out), Jaden Slory (out), Tonny Vilhena (out), Armin Culum (out), Anass Zarrouk (out)
- Squad depth+1
Ajax: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Willem II: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/3MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-18
Ajax: 18 in (3 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Amourricho van Axel Dongen to TBC, Thilo Kehrer from Monaco, Simon Adingra from Sunderland · Willem II: 13 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Chido Obi from Manchester United U23, Lasse Abildgaard to FC Eindhoven, Maxime Delanghe from Cercle Brugge
- Referee — Allard Lindhoutneutral
3.5 yellows and 0.13 reds per match across 15 tracked appointments.
- Ajax last 8 played+47
L W W L W — 2.89 scored / 1.94 conceded per match, 1.84 points per game (recency weighted).
- Willem II last 12 played+100
L D L L D — 0.97 scored / 3.04 conceded per match, 0.26 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+57
1 previous meetings: Ajax 1W 0D 0L, 2-1 on aggregate (+1.00 goal difference per meeting), 3.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 82% · form 83% · goal model 84% · results history 82% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+82
Goal-expectancy model: Ajax 3.24 xG, Willem II 0.78 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1680 | 1205 |
| Record | 12W 5D 3L | 0W 3D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 47.09527312157745 / 27.094571627771824 | 11.006663475627875 / 32.79592843822932 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 61% | 31% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 17.78938831904876–9.123649035151066 | 5 matches, 4.365819338157884–13.544642970100284 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 79.4%79.6% / 14.7% / 5.7%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Maher Carrizo Attackerout
- Aaron Bouwman Defenderout
- Daley Blind Defenderout
- Steven Berghuis Attackerout
- Simon Adingra Attackerout
- Viktor Tsygankov Attackerout
- Amourricho van Axel Dongen Attackerout
- Vito van Crooij Midfielderout
- Thomas Didillon-Hödl Goalkeeperout
- Thijs Muller Midfielderout
- Jari Schuurman Midfielderout
- Justin Hoogma Defenderout
- Amine Lachkar Midfielderout
- Jaden Slory Attackerout
- Tonny Vilhena Midfielderout
- Armin Culum Attackerout
- Anass Zarrouk Midfielderout
Availability impact: 10.9% home attack, 15.0% away attack.