Inter vs Udinese
Monday 14 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Inter attacking output+50
2.22 xG and 2.22 goals per match over the last 23.
- Udinese defensive record+15
1.54 xG and 1.54 goals conceded per match.
- Inter home record+69
33.1 scored / 15.1 conceded across 13 home matches.
- Udinese away record+4
16.4 scored / 17.2 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+12
Inter: Djed Spence (out) · Udinese: Lazar Jovanovic (out), Christian Kabasele (out), Giorgi Chakvetadze (out), Nicolò Zaniolo (out), Matteo Palma (out), Keinan Davis (out)
- Squad depth-0
Inter: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/10MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Udinese: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/10MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+31
Inter: 5 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Kristjan Asllani to Al Jazira, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro to Monza, Yann Sommer to Club Brugge · Udinese: 14 in (1 on loan), 24 out including 0 regulars — Rui Modesto to Vancouver Whitecaps, Branimir Mlacic to Watford, Bartosz Mrozek from Lech Poznań
- Referee — Luca Pairettoneutral
4.7 yellows and 0.29 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.
- Inter last 5 played+53
L W W W W — 2.29 scored / 1.22 conceded per match, 2.25 points per game (recency weighted).
- Udinese last 3 played+3
L W L — 1.94 scored / 2.00 conceded per match, 1.42 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 73% · form 75% · goal model 73% · results history 69% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+59
Goal-expectancy model: Inter 2.78 xG, Udinese 1.02 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1706 | 1416 |
| Record | 15W 5D 2L | 4W 6D 8L |
| Goals for / against | 51.06422495576021 / 25.83243176115866 | 20.018882036971476 / 27.75388977955879 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 60% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 13 matches, 33.12995366992656–15.0939797317228 | 10 matches, 16.350501427092578–17.16075443988264 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%68.2% / 18.9% / 12.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Djed Spence Defenderout
- Lazar Jovanovic Attackerout
- Christian Kabasele Defenderout
- Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielderout
- Nicolò Zaniolo Attackerout
- Matteo Palma Defenderout
- Keinan Davis Attackerout
Availability impact: 1.4% home attack, 9.2% away attack.