Napoli vs Bologna
Sunday 13 Sep, 16:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Napoli attacking output+3
1.49 xG and 1.49 goals per match over the last 21.
- Bologna defensive record+20
1.75 xG and 1.75 goals conceded per match.
- Napoli home record+45
18.6 scored / 8.7 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Bologna away record+36
15.0 scored / 23.0 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability-4
Napoli: Giovane (out), Scott McTominay (out), Alessandro Buongiorno (out), Luca Marianucci (out) · Bologna: Oussama El Azzouzi (out), Riccardo Orsolini (out)
- Squad depth+1
Napoli: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Bologna: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+13
Napoli: 15 in (0 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Christian Garofalo to Dolomiti Bellunesi, Jesper Lindstrøm to Salzburg, Juan Jesus to Venezia · Bologna: 25 in (0 on loan), 30 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan Rowe to Atalanta, Federico Cassa to Catanzaro, Federico Cassa from Atalanta II
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Kevin Bonacinaneutral
2.3 yellows and 0.25 reds per match across 4 tracked appointments.
- Napoli last 5 played-52
L L L L W — 0.93 scored / 1.96 conceded per match, 0.05 points per game (recency weighted).
- Bologna last 6 played+19
D L L D W — 0.99 scored / 1.36 conceded per match, 0.59 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 65% · form 68% · goal model 57% · results history 28% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+29
Goal-expectancy model: Napoli 1.91 xG, Bologna 1.04 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1631 | 1432 |
| Record | 12W 6D 3L | 8W 5D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 31.226235796251018 / 17.414107330025562 | 29.89917525492506 / 42.028482384078856 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | 52% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 18.633979954709172–8.741277425459202 | 11 matches, 15.038504217426164–23.00042116731418 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.8%52.3% / 23.4% / 24.4%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.8%52.3% / 23.4% / 24.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Giovane Attackerout
- Scott McTominay Midfielderout
- Alessandro Buongiorno Defenderout
- Luca Marianucci Defenderout
- Oussama El Azzouzi Midfielderout
- Riccardo Orsolini Attackerout
Availability impact: 6.0% home attack, 3.6% away attack.