Espanyol vs Elche
Friday 18 Sep, 19:00 UTC · RCDE Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Espanyol attacking output-34
0.72 xG and 0.72 goals per match over the last 19.
- Elche defensive record+10
1.21 xG and 1.21 goals conceded per match.
- Espanyol home record-40
5.0 scored / 11.3 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Elche away record+14
5.1 scored / 6.5 conceded across 5 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Espanyol: Javi Puado (out), Leandro Cabrera (out), Kike García (out) · Elche: Abiel Osorio (out)
- Squad depth-2
Espanyol: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/7MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Elche: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/7MID/11FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Espanyol: 10 in (0 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club, Rubén Sánchez to Elche, Bryan Zaragoza from FC Bayern München · Elche: 11 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Roy Revivo from Maccabi Tel Aviv, Rafa Núñez to CD Coria, Kevin Lomónaco from Independiente
- Espanyol last 2 played-24
D L — 1.00 scored / 1.49 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Elche last 4 played+87
L L L D — 1.27 scored / 3.02 conceded per match, 0.24 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 21% · form 18% · goal model 26% · results history 60% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-15
Goal-expectancy model: Espanyol 1.09 xG, Elche 1.54 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Espanyol | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1384 | 1606 |
| Record | 3W 7D 9L | 7W 3D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 13.759671178206927 / 24.41198701848492 | 21.336435425424558 / 15.78403120376128 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 42% | 60% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 4.980137172603082–11.308943585808189 | 5 matches, 5.0845256930277305–6.475410769678599 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%31.3% / 25.8% / 42.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Javi Puado Attackerout
- Leandro Cabrera Defenderout
- Kike García Attackerout
- Abiel Osorio Attackerout
Availability impact: 5.1% home attack, 1.7% away attack.