Leeds United vs Newcastle United
Monday 14 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Elland Road
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Leeds United attacking output+18
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals per match over the last 16.
- Newcastle United defensive record-17
1.28 xG and 1.28 goals conceded per match.
- Leeds United home record+51
12.0 scored / 4.9 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Newcastle United away record-8
10.1 scored / 8.7 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+10
Leeds United: Joe Rodon (out), Mateo Joseph (out) · Newcastle United: Tino Livramento (out), William Osula (out), Sven Botman (out), Joelinton (out), Dan Burn (out), Matías Fernández-Pardo (out)
- Squad depthneutral
Leeds United: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Newcastle United: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 5GK/5DEF/6MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activityneutral
Leeds United: 9 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Melvin Bard from Nice, Largie Ramazani to Burnley, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya from Eintracht Frankfurt · Newcastle United: 8 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Nick Woltemade to Juventus, Matías Fernández-Pardo from LOSC Lille, John Ruddy to Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Referee — Michael Salisburyneutral
4.8 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- Leeds United last 5 played-29
L D D W D — 1.80 scored / 2.38 conceded per match, 0.91 points per game (recency weighted).
- Newcastle United last 8 played-50
W D W D W — 1.89 scored / 0.89 conceded per match, 2.11 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 46% · form 48% · goal model 46% · results history 14% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+13
Goal-expectancy model: Leeds United 1.71 xG, Newcastle United 1.31 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Leeds United | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1576 | 1547 |
| Record | 6W 7D 3L | 10W 4D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 27.364498529143724 / 18.40226949000082 | 44.40278399481982 / 32.04219519164439 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 45% | 53% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 12.001284326489943–4.915707091070859 | 9 matches, 10.142684267131315–8.72031903073025 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%39.2% / 24.8% / 36.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Joe Rodon Defenderout
- Mateo Joseph Attackerout
- Tino Livramento Defenderout
- William Osula Attackerout
- Sven Botman Defenderout
- Joelinton Midfielderout
- Dan Burn Defenderout
- Matías Fernández-Pardo Attackerout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 9.3% away attack.